December 15th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Markets went nowhere but AI stocks kept falling. A sleeper headline from today that could cause massive disruption: Google is testing real estate listings directly in search results. Automated lockboxes and Google listing homes for sale would wreak havoc on the current real estate industry.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

AI Stocks Continue Being Shakey

Broadcom $AVGO and Oracle $ORCL both fell again after last week's beating. BTIG's chief technician: the AI basket is making lower lows and lower highs. That's how tops form.
As most folks know…I don’t think this is the AI top.

Gold Hits $4,300 While Dollar Confidence Cracks

Gold settled at $4,332. September saw record ETF inflows of $33 billion. Citadel's Ken Griffin said it plainly awhile ago: investors now treat gold as the safe harbor the dollar used to be. Morgan Stanley targets $4,400 but the real story is central banks buying in size.

Fed Governors Split on Inflation

Stephen Miran contradicted Jerome Powell. Powell says tariffs are causing the inflation problem. Miran says no - portfolio management fees added a quarter point over the past year. Fed governors arguing about what's causing inflation right before Thursday's CPI is not ideal.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Zillow Group $Z ( ▼ 8.59% ) 
fell on reports Google is testing real estate listings directly in search results. Existential threat if it rolls out.

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 5.71% ) 
kept falling after last week's earnings miss. AI infrastructure spending concerns are real.

KLA Corp $KLAC ( ▲ 2.57% ) 
climbed after Jefferies raised its price target to $1,500 from $1,200. The equipment maker supplies leading-edge chip production where AI spending still flows. Not all chip stocks are dying.

Immunome $IMNM ( ▲ 15.48% ) 
surged on positive Phase 3 results for its desmoid tumor drug. CEO called it best-in-class with once-daily dosing.

Big Name Updates

ServiceNow $NOW ( ▼ 11.55% ) 
dropped after Bloomberg reported a $7 billion deal to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis. Investors hate the price tag. This would be ServiceNow's largest acquisition.

iRobot $IRBT ( ▼ 72.22% ) 
collapsed after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Sunday. The Roomba maker will be acquired by Picea in restructuring.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 9.79% ) 
fell after SpaceX confirmed plans to go public next year. Rocket Lab just launched its 19th mission of 2025 but a public SpaceX changes the game.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.52% ) 
directors have made over $3 billion from stock awards - far above other tech boards. Kimbal Musk alone sits on nearly $1 billion.

General Motors $GM ( ▲ 1.35% ) 
hit new all-time highs going back to its 2010 IPO. Old auto is finding new momentum.

Other Notable Company News

Micron Technology $MU ( ▼ 1.58% ) 
outperformed chip peers after Wedbush raised its price target. The memory chip maker reports earnings Wednesday after the close.

AMD $AMD ( ▼ 1.62% ) 
is in talks with Samsung to build next-gen chips on its 2nm process.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.75% ) 
is in advanced talks to acquire AI chip startup SambaNova for about $1.6 billion including debt. That's down from a $5 billion valuation in 2021.

Hershey $HSY ( ▲ 3.56% ) 
got upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley on easing costs and improving sales trends.

Dollar General $DG ( ▼ 0.06% ) 
climbed after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight and raised its price target to $166 from $128.

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 11.88% ) 
signed a deal with Verizon $VZ for space-based cellular service starting 2026. Voice and video tests already working.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield sat at 4.18% with minimal movement. Dollar hit its highest level since August despite falling all year - if current levels hold through December, 2025 will be the worst year for the dollar since 2017.

Policy Watch

Fed

Stephen Miran contradicted Jerome Powell on Monday:

• Powell's view: Tariffs are causing the inflation overshoot

• Miran's view: Portfolio management fees added a quarter point, not tariffs

Miran dissented at last week's rate cut. He wanted a half-point cut, not a quarter point. His reasoning: don't ask people to lose jobs over distorted inflation data. Fed officials arguing publicly about inflation sources right before Thursday's CPI is messy.

Fed Chair Race

Kevin Hassett is facing pushback from people close to Trump. The concern: he's too close to the president. Prediction markets now show the race dead even between Hassett and Kevin Warsh at about 40% each.

Hassett said Monday he'd talk with Trump daily but the Fed must stay independent. Miran joked that "Kevin is a fantastic name" for next chair.

International

• China approved its first L3 autonomous vehicles

• U.S. removing sanctions on Belarus potash (fertilizer) easing eastern euro tension

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What to Watch

Jobs Report Tuesday

November payrolls data drops Tuesday morning. Economists expect 40,000 jobs added - down from September's 119,000. October retail sales also prints Tuesday.

CPI Thursday

November inflation data Thursday morning. Any upside strengthens Powell's tariff narrative. Any downside strengthens Miran's portfolio fee argument.

Nike and FedEx Thursday

Nike $NKE and FedEx $FDX report after the close. Nike's China exposure and FedEx's shipping volumes tell us about global demand.

Micron Wednesday

Micron $MU reports Wednesday after the close. The memory chip maker's results could shift sentiment for AI chips if demand surprises.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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