They vote, then they buy the stock

Happy Sunday

For all the headline stress about insider trading on Capitol Hill, Congress performed almost identically to professional money managers last year. Either they're not trading on inside information, or they're doing it badly.

How they traded tells a different story than how well they traded.

Let's dig in…

Congress Ran for the Exits

The headline numbers reveal a legislature that smelled something coming:

Congress trimmed positions in general and they rotated hard into fixed income. The people who write the laws started hoarding government bonds, retail might want to pay attention.

The selling peaked in March prior to the big tariff reckoning day in April, particularly among House Republicans who dumped significant positions…only to return with aggressive buying in November. Almost like they knew when the storm would pass.

Hindsight is 20/20.

The Tech Split: What Congress Actually Bought

Technology was the most-traded sector, but the strategy reveals something specific:

NVIDIA alone pulled in $11.2M from House members. Microsoft got $5M. Meanwhile, they dumped software positions.

This isn't stock picking. This is betting on legislation.

Congress passed the CHIPS Act, which hands tens of billions in subsidies to semiconductor manufacturers. Then they bought semiconductor stocks. Software doesn't get subsidies. They sold software stocks.

They're voting on which sector wins, then trading on that vote.

The Conflict Zone: Trading What You Regulate

This is where it gets uncomfortable.

Rep. Michael McCaul (TX-10) 
co-chairs the Semiconductor Caucus and AI Caucus—he’s called the “architect” of U.S. chip policy. He traded $1.1M in NVIDIA.

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) 
sits on Senate Banking, which regulates financial institutions. He sold up to $5M in Goldman Sachs.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)
serves on Senate Judiciary, responsible for antitrust enforcement over Big Tech. His disclosure shows up to $5M in NVIDIA. In 2025, he sold $250K of that position.

Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) 
is on Senate Agriculture, which oversees food nutrition standards and grain subsidies. She sold ~$500K in General Mills.

When the Co-Chair of the Semiconductor Caucus is trading NVIDIA, or a Banking Committee member moves $5M in Goldman Sachs, “appearance of conflict” becomes generous phrasing.

The Crypto Congressman

Rep. Brandon Gill (TX-26)

the youngest Republican in Congress, disclosed up to $2.5 million in Bitcoin purchases in his first six months.

On July 17, the House voted on three crypto bills—the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Gill voted YES on all three. The next day, the GENIUS Act was signed into law. Crypto hit all-time highs.

For comparison: Rep. Mark Green, another crypto-holding Republican, retired July 20. He didn’t vote on any of these bills.

Suspiciously Well-Timed Trades

Trades with unusual timing relative to news events.
Some highlights from last year.

Avoided Losses

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) 
sold ICF International on January 30. He sits on the Intelligence Committee. Days later, DOGE announced sweeping USAID cuts—ICF holds major USAID contracts. Avoided: -10.5% vs SPY.

Rep. Sheri Biggs (R-SC) 
sold Himax Technologies on March 18. She sits on Science, Space, and Technology. Trade tariff rumors started circulating shortly after. Avoided: -18.4% vs SPY.

Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) 
sold Full House Resorts on March 28. She sits on Appropriations. Weeks later, “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. Avoided: -21.3% vs SPY.

Captured Gains

Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) 
bought Super Micro Computer on April 30 while sitting on the Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Gain: +43.1% vs SPY in two weeks.

Moore also bought Intel multiple times in July and August. On August 22, the U.S. announced it was taking a stake in Intel. The stock has doubled since.

Rep. Sheri Biggs (R-SC) 
again… her husband bought “hundreds of thousands” in iShares Bitcoin Trust on July 9. On July 17, she voted YES on the GENIUS Act. It was signed into law the next day. Crypto hit all-time highs.

Rep. Cleo Fields (LA-6) 
bought IREN on July 10. On November 3, IREN announced a Microsoft/U.S. government deal. The stock is up +350%.

The STOCK Act Is a Joke

The law says Congress must disclose trades within 45 days. In 2025, that system collapsed:

• 1,200+ late disclosures

• 40 different politicians

• Some trades hidden for nearly 3 years

The Worst Offenders

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) — 953 days late

• Disclosed trades from January 2023 on August 13, 2025

• That’s nearly three years of hidden positions

Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI) — 504 late trades in one filing

• August 14, 2025 filing contained 504 transactions

• Some dating back to March 2024

• 41% of all late trades in the entire report

Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) — 917 days late

• Disclosed 33 trades from March 2023 on September 17, 2025

Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI)

• Filed nearly a year late on MicroStrategy trades

• MSTR rose 200%+ after his purchase

The standard defense? “Clerical error.” “Third-party accountants.” Rep. Lisa McClain wrote to the House Clerk that she was “taking aggressive measures to ensure full compliance in the future.” Rep. Michael McCaul’s office blamed “inadvertent spreadsheet cut-off errors.” The same excuse his office used 15 years ago.

The penalty for violating the STOCK Act? A waivable $200 fine. As the Campaign Legal Center put it: a “cost of doing business.”

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Winners and Losers

Top Performers

Under performers

The top performers didn’t win through frantic trading. They won through concentration. Warren Davidson’s 78.8% came from a bet on industrials. Donald Norcross managed 70.8% with just two stocks.

The worst performers lost through the same mechanism. Chip Roy went down 59% because he bet everything on Atlas Energy Solutions.

High Volume ≠ High Returns

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of the most active traders of the year. Her return?
+11.7% — underperforming SPY by 5 percentage points.

Rep. Ro Khanna filed over 3,000 individual transactions.
He has, on record, said that he does not own any stocks, and is a co-sponsor on the Restore Trust in Congress Act to ban congress from stock trading.

(He notes the portfolio belongs to his wife and is managed by a third party. He’s also a co-sponsor on a bill to ban Congressional stock trading.)

Will Congress Actually Ban Itself?

Bills introduced in 2025 to ban Congressional stock trading:

• STOCK Act 2.0

• ETHICS Act

• End Congressional Stock Trading Act

• Ban Congressional Stock Trading Act

• HONEST Act

• Bipartisan Restoring Faith in Government Act

• No Corruption in Government Act

• Restore Trust in Congress Act

Public support: overwhelming. Former Congress members supporting a ban: 90. Even Trump says he supports it.

The House Administration Committee, chaired by Rep. Bryan Steil (estimated +64% YTD himself), held a hearing called “Taking Stock of the STOCK Act.”

Nothing happened.

They held a similar hearing in 2022.

Nothing happened then either.

Stay curious 🙂 

- John

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