September 9th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Brent crossed $100 this morning and you will see that number everywhere today. Adjusted for inflation, oil has averaged around $95 this century, so the price is closer to ordinary than the headline makes it sound.

The Dow is taking the worst of it at the open

Apple has its event at one today, so that’s something to watch for as a afternoon tech catalyst.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Seven Months In And The Forecasts Keep Moving
Brent crossed $100 after the US destroyed five more Iranian tankers, ten in the past week. Back in March, Allianz, Jefferies and Société Générale all had this resolved inside four weeks. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC have each raised their Brent forecasts in recent days. The Street has moved from pricing a quick resolution to pricing a long one.

2. The Fed Votes Before It Sees The Number
Traders put the odds of an increase next Wednesday just above 60 percent. Thursday's wholesale prices and Friday's consumer prices are not the gauge the Fed sets policy on. That one publishes at the end of the month, after the vote. China's wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected this morning on commodity costs, which is what oil looks like once it lands in real data.

3. The Pros Are Buying What Retail Is Selling
Bank of America says last week brought the sixth-largest weekly equity inflows since 2008. Institutions and hedge funds were net buyers for a second straight week, led by tech. Private clients sold for the sixth week running. Professional money is adding near record highs with the volatility index at 16, still under its long-term average of 17.6.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Casey's General Stores $CASY ( ▼ 2.99% )  
Down despite a fiscal first quarter that beat on both earnings and revenue. The problem was the mix: prepared food and dispensed beverage, grocery and general merchandise, and fuel gallons all came in under estimates, and same-store sales grew slower than a year ago. Management left its fiscal 2027 outlook unchanged, and the stock came into the print up more than thirty percent on the year.

ServiceTitan $TTAN ( ▼ 7.21% )  
Down on third quarter revenue guidance that landed below estimates. The quarter itself was fine, with revenue of $292.8 million against $285.9 million expected and a raise to the full year outlook, but the near-term guide is what the tape took.

Chime Financial $CHYM ( ▼ 4.3% )  
Up on guidance rather than the quarter. The consumer banking app beat on second quarter results and then guided third quarter revenue to $680 million to $690 million, roughly forty million above the $640.6 million estimate.

Signet Jewelers $SIG ( ▲ 20.25% )  
Up on second quarter adjusted earnings of $2.19 a share against a $1.74 estimate. The jeweler raised its full year earnings guidance alongside the print.

Braze $BRZE ( ▼ 5.16% )  
Down after second quarter revenue came in under estimates. The customer engagement software company beat on earnings per share, which did not carry the print.

Mission Produce $AVO ( ▲ 1.5% )  
Up after the avocado grower and distributor beat every analyst polled by FactSet on both adjusted earnings per share and revenue in its fiscal third quarter. No one on the Street had the number high enough.

What to Watch

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Oracle Reports Tomorrow Afternoon
It carries the weakest balance sheet of the hyperscalers, one notch above junk at S&P, with default insurance running about four times Microsoft's. Combined capital spending across the group is projected above $1 trillion a year for the next four years. Oracle is the one most likely to signal a slowdown, and the read-through runs to chipmakers and the AI listings behind it.

Apple Event (1:00 PM ET)
The read-through is memory chips, not phones. Bank of America expects Pro model prices to rise by $150 to $200 because memory costs went vertical, and Tim Cook called it a hundred-year flood on his final earnings call. If Apple confirms those increases on stage, the largest hardware buyer in the world has just told every supplier and competitor that the cost pass through is real.

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