September 9th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

3 down days in a row, none of them were really about earnings. Oil is back over $100 and the 10-year is at a three year high.

Everyone's watching these two numbers, and the good news is they both have catalysts this week: inflation data Tomorrow and Friday, then the Fed.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump Says No Oil Relief Until After The Midterms

Brent settled at $101.21, its highest close since May, after the U.S. destroyed five more Iranian tankers. Trump told reporters oil won't come down until "right after" the November election. Diesel now averages $5.94 a gallon, and the EIA expects stockpiles to fall below 100 million barrels this month for the first time since 2003. Truckers and farmers are paying for this war before anyone else.

2. The Bond Market Wanted More From Bessent

Treasury tripled tomorrow's long-term debt buyback to $6 billion. Bessent had called $4 billion the floor last month, so plenty of traders were braced for $7 or $8 billion. Yields rose instead of falling, and the 10-year finished near 4.84, its highest since late 2023.

3. Apple Prices The Fold At $1,999

Apple $AAPL unveiled the iPhone Duo at John Ternus's first launch event. Memory and storage chip costs have quintupled since last fall, so prices rose across the lineup, though by less than analysts feared. The stock trailed the S&P on launch day for the sixth year running. Bank of America says it usually looks better 60 days out.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock spotlight

Meta $META ( ▲ 6.49% )  
was the day's big tech winner after launching Muse, a standalone AI assistant that also runs inside WhatsApp. Mizuho set a $750 target and KeyBanc $780, both saying the market is underpricing Meta's AI product cycle.

Casey's General Stores $CASY ( ▼ 14.22% )  
beat on earnings and revenue, but same-store sales grew slower than last year and fuel gallons missed. Management held its full year outlook. After a big run this year, good wasn't good enough.

ServiceTitan $TTAN ( ▼ 30.11% )  
beat on both lines but guided current quarter revenue slightly below forecasts. Shares lost about a fifth of their value on a small miss, which tells you how little room software names have right now.

Lithium Americas $LAC ( ▲ 6.17% )  
got an upgrade to overweight and a $6 target from JPMorgan after the bank raised its lithium price forecasts.

Big name updates

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 1.36% )  
got a buy rating and $170 target from StoneX. Prediction markets went from $3 million in quarterly revenue early last year to $156 million last quarter, more than equities or crypto brought in. CEO Vlad Tenev also pushed back on AMC's complaints about tokenized shares, saying issuers don't control every product built around their stock.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.77% )  
fell after investigators said two systems that could have slowed the Amazon Air plane that crashed in Miami over the weekend were never deployed.

Fox $FOX ( ▼ 1.87% )  
and Roku $ROKU both dropped after the Justice Department asked for more information on Fox's $22 billion deal for Roku. That adds at least 30 days once both comply. Fox still expects to close in the first half of 2027.

Lyft $LYFT ( ▼ 8.13% )  
named Michael Brous finance chief, replacing the retiring Erin Brewer, and reaffirmed guidance. Shares fell anyway.

Blue Chips
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Other notable company news

Chime $CHYM ( ▲ 6.84% )  
agreed to pay $590 million in cash for Oklahoma lender Stride Bank.

Mission Produce $AVO ( ▲ 4.2% )  
beat every analyst estimate for its fiscal third quarter.

Chewy $CHWY ( ▼ 11.78% )  
reported earnings in line with expectations.

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Sector Watch

Bond market

The $39 billion 10-year auction went well. Notes sold at 4.834, below what traders expected, and that took the 10-year off its high for the day.

• Tomorrow: $6 billion buyback at 1:40 p.m. ET, then a 30-year auction.

Policy watch

Fiscal & trade

Bessent says the U.S. can grow its way out of $40 trillion in debt with three percent growth. He also told an SMU crowd "I am the house now." The bond market disagreed today.

• Canada's tariffs on about 700 U.S. goods took effect Tuesday.

• The White House plans to ban Canadian dairy, most alcohol and motorcycles from Sept. 29 if the standoff holds.

• U.S. ports expect their busiest month of the year in September. Consumers keep buying through tariffs and $4 gas.

International

• Europe enters winter with its lowest gas inventories in 15 years. Only five LNG cargoes left Hormuz in August, against 97 oil tankers.

• Houthis hit Saudi energy infrastructure, so crude's risk premium stays.

• China's producer prices ran hotter than expected in August. Household demand is still soft.

What to Watch

The AI Infrastructure's Backbone
10 Stocks Powering the AI Buildout

Producer prices, Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET

The first of two inflation prints before the Fed votes. A hot number pushes the committee toward a hike.

Oracle earnings, Thursday after the close

Oracle $ORCL has the weakest balance sheet of the big AI spenders and is the most likely to blink on data center spending. Listen for whether the tone is pedal to the metal or prudence.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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