September 8th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Honestly, feels like everyone's just waiting around for inflation data this week. PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday. After Friday's terrible jobs number the Fed's probably gonna cut rates, but who knows anymore.

Today’s sponsor is really cool. Mainly because I surf and mainly because I’m hyper interested in this technology as it because available. It would be nuts to see a wave pool company be publicly traded one day.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1.) Tech Carries the Load While Everything Else Waits 

The NASDAQ eked out a new record while the S&P 500 and Dow barely moved. Broadcom and NVIDIA did the heavy lifting in tech. The AI story still has legs, but the broader market's just killing time until we get inflation data Wednesday and Thursday.

2.) SpaceX Buys $17 Billion Worth of Spectrum
 
SpaceX is paying EchoStar up to $17 billion for wireless spectrum licenses - half cash, half SpaceX stock. EchoStar also gets to connect its Boost Mobile customers to Starlink's direct-to-cell service. The big telecom players took it on the chin - T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon all dropped as investors realized they've got new competition coming.

3.) S&P 500 Gets Two New Members 

Robinhood and AppLovin are joining the S&P 500 on September 22nd. Robinhood replaces Caesars and AppLovin boots MarketAxess.

Index funds have no choice but to buy these stocks now. Gold also hit another record high as rate cut bets keep building.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes

Stock Spotlight

EchoStar $SATS ( ▲ 3.65% ) agreed to sell AWS-4 and H-block licenses to SpaceX for up to $17 billion in cash and stock, plus debt interest support. Boost Mobile users get access to Starlink Direct-to-Cell as part of the deal.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 0.17% ) dropped on debate over Elon Musk's proposed pay package. U.S. EV market share fell to 38% in August, the lowest in nearly eight years per Cox Automotive. Baird kept Neutral at $320, Morgan Stanley stayed Overweight at $410.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.46% ) got a Citi target cut to $200 from $210. They trimmed 2026 GPU sales estimates and see a potential $12 billion hit from Broadcom custom chip deals.

Big Name Updates

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.04% ) had multiple subsea cables cut in the Red Sea. Azure is rerouting traffic but latency might increase. OpenAI reportedly bumped cash burn projections to $115 billion through 2029 - $8 billion this year, $45 billion in 2028.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 2.39% ) got downgraded by Phillip Capital after last week's antitrust rally. They're worried about the data-sharing requirements with competitors.

Other Notable Company News

Roblox $RBLX ( ▲ 2.58% ) Needham kept Buy at $159. They launched "Moments" for search and discovery, plus off-site advertising is coming.

DraftKings $DKNG ( ▼ 0.89% ) Citizens JMP kept Market Outperform at $54. Kalshi is dominating early NFL betting volume.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 1.04% ) joins the S&P 500 on September 22, replacing Caesars Entertainment. Index funds have to buy it now.

AppLovin $APP ( ▲ 2.04% ) also entering the S&P 500, replacing MarketAxess. Same story - forced buying from index funds.

XPeng $XPEV ( ▲ 0.83% ) announced mass-produced self-driving cars by 2026, flying car test flight in Dubai this October, and factory robots by 2026.

PNC Financial $PNC ( ▼ 1.65% ) buying FirstBank for $4.1 billion to expand west.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield sat near 4.046% as Treasurys extended Friday's bid. Lower yields supported growth equities and gold.

• Options flow leaned into easing with calls in cyclicals and small caps increasing after the jobs miss

• Mortgage rates reset lower, with the 30-year at 6.29% on Friday offering some housing relief even as job concerns may slow buyers

• Futures imply quarter-point cuts through year-end

Policy Watch

Fed Personnel Stephen Miran faces a Senate Banking Committee vote Wednesday and could join the September FOMC, where he's expected to favor cuts. President Trump named Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett as Fed chair candidates.

Fed Independence Debate
Business leaders and investors, including Ken Griffin, highlighted risks from political pressure on monetary policy. The debate may influence market confidence around the easing path.

Tariffs and Treasury 
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a Supreme Court loss on tariffs would force refunds on about half the tariffs, hitting Treasury cash flow.

• OPEC+ agreed in principle to a 137,000 barrel per day output increase in October

• China August exports rose 4.4% year-over-year (below estimates) while imports rose 1.3% (below estimates)

• Global growth remains mixed heading into U.S. inflation prints

Today’s Sponsor

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What to Watch

PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday 
These inflation prints will determine if the Fed cuts 25 or 50 basis points. Core numbers matter most.

Oracle Earnings Tuesday 
First major tech earnings of the season. Cloud and AI spending trends will set the tone.

Apple Event Tuesday 
New iPhone announcement. Watch for AI features and supplier impact.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John