September 4th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

So much for the quiet number. Payrolls came in scorching at 162k added jobs against an estimate of 55k, and everyone gets one session to quickly price that in before the market closes until Tuesday.

Likely some larger volatility in the AM and into close because of this.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Payrolls Tripled The Estimate And The Fed Says It Barely Matters 

The economy added 162,000 jobs against 53,000 expected, and July's reported loss became a 21,000 gain. Hike odds for September 16 moved to roughly 58 percent from 49 a day ago. But Waller said Thursday a healthy labor market would not weigh heavily on his vote, and Warsh has called labor stable for weeks. This removed the easiest argument against a hike without building the case for one.

2. Gold And Bitcoin Took The Hit, Not Stocks 

Gold fell to a session low of $4,419 and the miners went with it, with Franco-Nevada, Kinross and Eldorado each down more than three and a half percent. Bitcoin gave back its four month high and slipped under $80,000. Both had run Thursday on Waller and in August on the Treasury doubling its long bond buybacks. Nasdaq futures are still green, so risk appetite held. What sold was the trade that pays when the dollar weakens.

3. Diesel Set A Record While Crude Fell 

Diesel hit $5.85 a gallon this morning, past the June 2022 peak, while Brent slipped toward $94. That gap points at refineries rather than crude, with plants damaged in both the Middle East and Russia. Refining capacity does not come back on a ceasefire headline the way crude supply does. Diesel moves freight, farming and construction, so it reaches food and goods prices ahead of next week's inflation report.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Lululemon $LULU ( ▲ 1.42% )  
Down on the guidance cut, the second this year. Full year revenue now guided to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion, a decline of 5 to 7 percent, after second quarter revenue fell 4 percent to $2.4 billion with comparable sales off 9 percent.

Guidewire Software $GWRE ( ▲ 5.24% )  
Down on the forward guide, not the quarter. Current quarter revenue guidance of $372 million to $378 million came in under the $387 million consensus.

Samsara $IOT ( ▲ 5.33% )  
Up on a raised full year outlook. Revenue guidance of $2.04 billion to $2.05 billion topped the $2.01 billion consensus, with adjusted earnings guided to 76 to 78 cents against 72 expected.

DocuSign $DOCU ( ▲ 0.89% )  
Up modestly on a beat and raise. Adjusted earnings and revenue both topped estimates and the company lifted its full year revenue and operating margin forecasts. Current quarter revenue guidance landed roughly in line, and the stock has already run more than 55 percent since late June.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.8% )  
Up with the chip and hyperscaler group. The move follows Thursday's agreement to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, alongside premarket strength in Marvell, Micron and Intel after OpenAI released its new model. Lam Research, Applied Materials and Sandisk are also higher after semis lagged the rest of the week.

MP Materials $MP ( ▼ 1.68% )  
Up on a Reuters report that some Chinese producers halted US shipments over geopolitical concerns. USA Rare Earth $USAR ( ▼ 0.9% ) , Critical Metals $CRML ( ▲ 0.82% ) and Energy Fuels $UUUU ( ▲ 0.42% ) are moving with it. The report cites sources, and no producer has confirmed it.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Three Days Closed With The Gulf Live
Central Command said Friday it has redirected 87 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two. South Korea is weighing sending troops to the region before year end, and the EU formally joined the sanctions campaign this week. Oil is on pace for its biggest weekly gain since mid-July.

Apple's September 9 Keynote
Citi expects a foldable iPhone starting above $2,000, with roughly 5 million units in the second half and 2.3 million in the first quarter of 2027. Apple already raised prices because it cannot source enough memory, and Cook called that market a hundred year flood. T

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