September 29th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

Oil got cheaper today, and long-term interest rates went up.

Stocks mostly shrugged it off. With one day left, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to finish the quarter higher.

Given what bonds and war have thrown at equities since July, I'll call that a win.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Fell and Long-Term Rates Rose

US crude fell to about $89. The 30-year Treasury yield still hit 5.61, its highest since June 2002. Bond investors are more worried about how long oil stays expensive than how high it goes. Paramount Skydance added to the pressure with $32 billion in new bonds for its Warner Bros. deal. That's the fifth largest corporate bond sale on record. Investors say some buyers are selling long-term Treasurys to make room.

2. The New York Fed Says There's No Rush

This morning I said 7.2 million or more job openings would back an October hike. It came in at 7.1 million. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 when economists expected 89. Then New York Fed President John Williams said "there is no need for urgency." The 2-year yield, which tracks the Fed's next move, fell as he spoke. Fed Governor Michael Barr still expects more hikes, so this isn't settled.

3. Financial Stocks Are Having Their Worst Month Since 2023

Financials are the weakest sector in September. They're on pace for their worst month since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. Blackstone is down about a fifth this month, and Morgan Stanley has fallen six days straight. Higher rates let banks charge more on loans. That only helps if people still want to borrow.

Market Overview

Index Performance (hirings, firings, quits and vacancies today)

Stock Spotlight

Carnival $CCL ( ▲ 13.1% )  
rallied after third-quarter profit and revenue both rose, even with fuel this expensive. Bookings and pricing for 2027 are already at record levels. The stock is still down almost a fifth this year.

XPeng $XPEV ( ▼ 4.82% )  
hit a 52-week low of $9.51 after JPMorgan downgraded it to neutral. The bank sees China's car market staying weak into 2027 as demand softens and costs rise.

AAR $AIR ( ▼ 6.63% )  
rose after the aerospace and defense supplier beat estimates on first-quarter earnings and revenue.

Big Name Updates

Meta $META ( ▲ 2.45% )  
rose after opening its Muse AI agent to small businesses. Muse can now take actions in apps like Slack, Stripe, QuickBooks and Zoom. It's been downloaded more than 3.4 million times. Hours later OpenAI unveiled its rival, Dot.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.73% )  
has talked with insurance companies about taking on the risk of loans backed by its chips. That would help smaller cloud companies borrow the money to buy them.

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▼ 0.06% )  
may finally have a succession timeline. The WSJ reports the board has discussed CEO David Solomon stepping down as soon as late 2027. His No. 2, John Waldron, would take over. Goldman says there's no set timeline.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.26% )  
pushed its outdoor Roadster launch in Waco, Texas, from Thursday to October 15 because of the weather forecast. Tesla started taking deposits of up to $250,000 on this car in 2017. It was supposed to be in production by 2020.

Blue Chips
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Other Notable Company News

Disney $DIS ( ▼ 0.46% )  
is cutting about 300 jobs, mostly in human resources and technology. It's the latest round under CEO Josh D'Amaro, after cuts in April and July.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▲ 1.6% )  
got upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank, which says worries about how much people watch are overblown.

RTX $RTX ( ▼ 0.19% )  
won a $20.7 billion government contract.

Today’s Sponsor

7 Stocks Built to Hold Forever. See the Full List.

Chasing the next hot stock can be exhausting, and it rarely builds wealth the way investors expect. The strongest long-term portfolios are often anchored by durable, blue-chip businesses designed to withstand recessions, inflation and shifting market leadership.

MarketBeat’s free 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever report identifies companies across technology, retail, consumer staples, healthcare, networking, sporting goods and utilities. Each offers its own mix of stability, income, growth and staying power.

These are not speculative names built around the latest headline. They are established businesses selected for investors who would rather own quality companies for years than constantly chase the market.

Get your complimentary copy and see all seven names today.

Get the Free Report

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Short-term rates fell and long-term rates rose today, the reverse of yesterday. The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.58, the highest since November 2023.

Policy Watch

Fiscal & Trade

The Energy Department wants to loan up to 40 million more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That would finish the 172 million barrel release the US promised its allies.

• Nvidia and AMD have reportedly asked the White House to push Congress to drop or soften proposed limits on AI chip sales to China.

International

The US and Iran held indirect talks through mediators Monday. That night, Trump called reports that he'd offer Iran sanctions relief untrue.

• Gulf oil shipments are back to just under four fifths of prewar levels, per ship tracker Kpler. That's a big reason oil fell today.

What to Watch

Paramount's $32 Billion Bond Sale Wednesday

Investors say this sale is part of why long-term Treasurys are weak this week. If long yields ease once it's done, some of the selling was just buyers clearing space.

Friday's Jobs Report

Economists expect 90,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August. Williams says the Fed can wait for more data, and this is the biggest piece before the next meeting. A number well above 90,000 backs the bond traders betting on more hikes.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

The best in influencer marketing. And you’re invited.

Get ready for Return on Influence Festival '26. An entire day dedicated to influencer marketing with speakers running some of the best programs in the world. October 21, 2026, 10 am - 5 pm ET.

Save your spot now