September 29th Market Overview

Happy Monday

AI bounced. Chips led.

The Saudis and partners dropped $55 billion on Electronic Arts while public markets worried about power grids.

OpenAI launched checkout in ChatGPT. People can now buy stuff without leaving the app. That matters more than another datacenter buildout story.

Shutdown odds sit above 70%. Friday's jobs report gets delayed if it happens.

P.S. 274 traders now using the Market Health Dashboard!

Last 26 spots left be to grandfathered-in to all future tools I build at this price.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

AI names bounced back after last week's selloff

Chips led. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said competitors could give chips away and Nvidia still wins on value. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology found buyers. OpenAI launched Instant Checkout, letting ChatGPT users buy products in the app.

Two mega-deals showed private equity hunting value

Electronic Arts agreed to go private for $55 billion, the largest PE-backed buyout on record.

Genmab bought Merus for $8 billion. U.S. deal volume this year crossed $1 trillion. Goldman upgraded global stocks for three months. Bank of America raised its S&P 500 target to 7,200.

A government shutdown would delay Friday's jobs report

Odds of a funding lapse remain high. Barclays expects it could last at least five days. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all releases during a shutdown. Friday's jobs report would be delayed, possibly pushing back the October 15 inflation data. The Fed needs that jobs data before its October meeting. If payrolls is delayed, traders will rely on Tuesday's job openings and Thursday's ADP private payrolls.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock indexes

Stock Spotlight

Electronic Arts $EA ( ▲ 4.52% ) 
Going private for $55 billion backed by PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners. Largest PE buyout on record. Gaming peers Roblox $RBLX and Take-Two Interactive $TTWO moved higher.

Merus $MRUS ( ▲ 35.97% ) 
Genmab buying for $97 a share, $8 billion total. Close expected Q1 2026.

Etsy $ETSY ( ▲ 15.83% ) 
Hit 52-week high after OpenAI launched Instant Checkout in ChatGPT. Shopify $SHOP ( ▲ 6.25% ) gained as OpenAI plans to expand to over one million merchants.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 2.05% )
Jensen Huang said competitors could give chips away for free and Nvidia still offers better value.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.43% ) 
BofA kept Buy, $270 target. iPhone 17 delivery times running 19 days versus 5 days for iPhone 16 last year.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.08% ) 
JMP kept bullish view, $290 target. AI Mode rolled out in Spanish globally.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 0.61% ) 
Barclays called the 32% monthly rally retail momentum with a disconnect from near-term earnings.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.61% ) 
Some Microsoft bonds traded at lower yields than Treasuries. Shows aggressive chase for top-rated debt with little cushion left.

Other Notable Company News

Oklo $OKLO ( ▲ 5.34% ) 
Barclays started positive, $146 target, after 20% drop last week. Signed deal with Sweden's Blykalla on reactor development. NuScale Power $SMR got neutral Barclays coverage, $45 target.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 0.32% ) 
Morgan Stanley downgraded to negative, $47 target, on slowing U.S. weight-loss drug prescriptions and rising competition. Down 35% year-to-date.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 4.65% ) 
Jefferies raised target to $230, Morgan Stanley to $200. Cloud momentum building. AI processing volume doubling every 2-3 months.

Robinhood Markets $HOOD ( ▲ 12.27% ) 
CEO said 4 billion prediction market contracts traded since launch. Piper Sandler raised target.

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 0.94% ) 
WSJ reported Pentagon pushing missile makers to double or quadruple production. Won $11 billion Navy helicopter contract.

Cannabis stocks
AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF $MSOS ( ▲ 28.16% ) jumped after Trump video endorsing cannabis for seniors.

Coal producers
Peabody Energy $BTU ( ▲ 9.3% ) 
moved on Trump's $625 million support plan and 13.1 million acre federal land opening.

Home-goods retailers

Williams-Sonoma $WSM ( ▼ 4.65% ) 
RH $RH ( ▼ 2.25% ) 
Haverty Furniture $HVT ( ▼ 1.47% ) 

fell on new tariffs: 50% kitchen cabinets, 30% upholstered furniture, effective Wednesday.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.145%. Shutdown concerns and weaker oil supported bonds.

Gold hit a record $3,820.90. Silver reached its highest level in over 14 years. Platinum hit a 12-year high.

Policy Watch

Government funding

• Shutdown odds remain high into midweek

• Barclays expects it could last at least five days

• Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all releases during a shutdown

• Friday's jobs report would be delayed, potentially the October 15 CPI too

• Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack noted services inflation remains sticky above 2%

Trade moves 100% tariff announced on foreign-made movies. New home goods tariffs start Wednesday: 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture.

Energy $625 million to support coal plants, with $350 million for upgrades. 13.1 million federal acres opened for leasing.

China tech U.S. expanded export controls. If a Chinese company is blacklisted, all its subsidiaries now face restrictions too—closing a common workaround.

Housing Pending home sales rose 4% in August as mortgage rates fell from 6.75% to 6.58%. Midwest seeing stronger activity on better affordability.

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What to Watch

Data releases this week JOLTS job openings Tuesday. ADP private payrolls Thursday. If government shuts down, payrolls delayed Friday and possibly CPI on October 15.

Jefferies earnings Monday Fiscal quarter ends in August. Watch for commentary on M&A pipelines and sponsor activity.

Home goods tariffs start Wednesday 50% on cabinets, 30% on furniture. Watch Williams-Sonoma $WSM and RH $RH for margin impact.

Hyperscaler capex guidance Track any spending updates from Microsoft , Amazon, Alphabet on AI infrastructure.

Weekly mortgage rates After pending sales rose 4% in August, mortgage rate direction determines if housing momentum holds.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John