September 22nd Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Monday was a green rocket, this morning feels like the calm after a good game.

Oil keeps getting cheaper, but traders still expect the Fed to raise rates three more times. Cheaper oil is nice. Cheaper borrowing would be nicer, and we're not there yet.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Fell Fast, But The Saudi Barrels Will Take Weeks

Brent fell under $100 after Saudi Arabia restarted the pipeline that moves its oil around Hormuz. It's pumping at a low rate, and full speed could be up to eight weeks away. Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz is unconfirmed, and Libya lost about 200,000 barrels a day Monday. If the Saudi ramp slips, oil and bond yields could turn back up together.

2. Traders Expect More Fed Hikes Than The Fed Does

Traders now price three more quarter-point hikes within a year, more than Fed officials projected last week. Short-term Treasury yields are barely budging, so the gap to 10-year yields is the smallest since March 2025. Cheaper oil is easing long-term rates, but it hasn't changed what traders expect from the Fed.

3. Monday's Record Was Narrow, Even Inside Chips

Monday's Nasdaq record came with more S&P 500 stocks hitting 52-week lows than highs. Chips are lopsided too. AMD and Intel have nearly tripled this year, while Nvidia trades near its cheapest in a decade relative to profits. This morning Dow futures lead while the Nasdaq is flat, an early sign money is moving beyond tech.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold

28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.

So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.

This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.

Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.

See how other owners are doing it at Kalshi.com/hedging

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

AutoZone $AZO ( ▼ 1.82% )  
is higher after quarterly profit of $56.05 a share beat the $54.30 analysts expected. It beat even though sales missed at $6.6 billion, as stores open at least a year barely grew.

Quest Diagnostics $DGX ( ▼ 0.64% )  
and Labcorp $LH are lower after Medicare said it will cut most lab payments to match what private insurers pay. Its report found Medicare has been paying more than private plans, so both companies stand to collect less per test.

Vicor $VICR ( ▲ 0.53% )  
is rallying after raising its third-quarter sales forecast. The power electronics maker now expects growth from last quarter to be roughly double what it guided before.

On Holding $ONON ( ▲ 0.22% )  
is higher after its investor day set a goal of at least 5.6 billion Swiss francs in sales by 2029. It also plans up to $1 billion in buybacks through 2029 and kept its 2026 forecast.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 2.22% )  
is higher after laying out plans for more than 20 gigawatts of data centers by 2032. It also unveiled a new AI chip, built to rival Nvidia, that it says is three times faster than its last one.

Shopify $SHOP ( ▲ 7.33% )  
is adding to Monday's gain after Meta confirmed its Muse AI agent can buy from Shopify stores. Purchases run through Shop Pay, putting Shopify's checkout inside the app that just topped Apple's App Store.

What to Watch

Trump And Zelenskyy (Today)
Trump wants Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, and Zelenskyy says he'll match any Russian step to spare Ukraine's energy sites. Diesel just topped $6.50 a gallon, and Republicans in tight races are now calling for a diesel export ban. Without a truce, expect that push to grow before the midterms.

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Today’s Sponsor

How Jennifer Aniston’s LolaVie brand grew sales 40% with CTV ads

The DTC beauty category is crowded. To break through, Jennifer Aniston’s brand LolaVie, worked with Roku Ads Manager to easily set up, test, and optimize CTV ad creatives. The campaign helped drive a big lift in sales and customer growth, helping LolaVie break through in the crowded beauty category.

Learn more