September 22nd Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

The Nasdaq touched another record high today, while the Dow slipped and the S&P 500 barely moved. Oil made its usual round trip, dipping this morning and climbing back after Trump spoke at the UN the fading into close.

I think investors have made their call → keep owning AI and ride out the oil headlines.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump Says an Iran Deal Comes After the Midterms

Japan's Kyodo News reported that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the US eased military pressure. Brent crude fell to $97 on the news. Then Trump told the UN he expects a deal "right after the election," and Brent climbed back to about $100. The midterms are six weeks away, and until then every Iran headline hits oil first, then bond yields, then stocks.

2. Meta's Muse Is Learning to Shop

Shopify $SHOP will let Meta's Muse AI agent buy from its stores using Shop Pay. PayPal $PYPL signed a similar deal with Meta today. In its first 12 days, Muse was downloaded 1.8 million times, versus 1.3 million for ChatGPT, per Sensor Tower. Amazon already blocked Muse from shopping its site, so the fight over who owns the checkout button has started.

3. Viking's Weight-Loss Shot Works With Fewer Doses

Viking Therapeutics $VKTX had its best day since February 2024 on new data for its weight-loss shot. Patients who cut back to one shot a month kept off most of the weight they'd lost, well ahead of placebo. Citi's Geoff Meacham called the fewer-shots result the bigger deal. Lilly and Novo still own this market, and both stocks slipped today.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

SanDisk $SNDK ( ▲ 6.96% )  
helped carry the Nasdaq after Rosenblatt set a $2,400 price target, well above its roughly $1,860 share price. Rosenblatt thinks new deals with eight of the world's biggest memory buyers could cover about two-thirds of its fiscal 2028 output.

Lennar $LEN ( ▲ 6.65% )  
rose after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed buying more than 2.7 million shares. That's a long-term bet on housing, even with rates this high.

Capri Holdings $CPRI ( ▲ 6.78% )  
owner of Michael Kors and Versace, rose on a report that buyers have looked at its books. Sources said a deal isn't close, and the stock is still down more than a third this year.

Grab $GRAB ( ▲ 8.76% )  
Singapore ride-hailing company, rose after CEO Anthony Tan disclosed buying 10.4 million shares.

GameStop $GME ( ▲ 6.63% )  
CEO Ryan Cohen also bought his own stock, about 1.1 million shares for $26 million. Shares have been recovering since GameStop wiped out $1.4 billion of debt by paying bondholders in stock.

Big Name Updates

Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 0.62% )  
unveiled an AI chip built to rival Nvidia, three times as powerful as the one it released in May. It also plans to run more than 20 gigawatts of data centers by 2032.

Amgen $AMGN ( ▲ 4.41% )  
rose after its drug dazodalibep posted positive late-stage results in adults with Sjögren's disease, an autoimmune condition.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.88% )  
broke ground on a $6.5 billion Houston plant to make Foundayo, its GLP-1 pill.

Blue Chips
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Other Notable Company News

Vicor $VICR ( ▲ 18.36% )  
a power electronics maker, more than doubled its revenue growth forecast for the third quarter.

Circle $CRCL ( ▲ 0.58% )  
landed a $100 million investment from Binance, which will push Circle's USDC stablecoin in emerging markets.

SoFi $SOFI ( ▲ 1.68% )  
I became the first US national bank to settle stablecoin payments on Mastercard's network.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is the narrowest since March 2025. Short-term yields track the Fed, and traders now price three more quarter-point hikes over the next year. That's more than the Fed itself projected last week.

Policy Watch

Fed

Governor Michael Barr speaks Wednesday, and four regional Fed presidents follow Thursday. Watch whether they agree with traders who expect more hikes.

Iran and Oil

• Trump told the UN he'll either make a deal with Iran or "annihilate" it.

• He said a deal would push oil below pre-war prices.

• He's "probably" open to meeting Iran's president.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it's open to talks.

Fiscal & Trade

Diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon, and Republican lawmakers want Trump to ban diesel exports. That would hurt refiners that sell overseas.

Medicare plans to cut its lab test payments down to what private insurers pay. Quest Diagnostics $DGX and Labcorp $LH both fell.

International

• UK borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August, well above forecasts.

• France now pays over a full percentage point more than Germany on 10-year debt.

What to Watch

Trump and Xi Meet in Washington

Xi Jinping arrives at the White House Wednesday, with the main meeting Thursday. The agenda covers AI, Iran, Taiwan, tariffs and rare earths. Xi is expected to push Trump to stop selling arms to Taiwan. Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the prep talks "very successful."

Saudi Pipeline Restart

Saudi Arabia is testing its East-West pipeline, its main route around the Strait of Hormuz. Exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart as soon as this week. Yanbu shipped more than 4 million barrels a day this summer. Getting the pipeline back to full speed could take up to eight weeks.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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