September 22nd Market Overview

Happy Monday

Annnnd, were back!

The money pouring into AI infrastructure is insane.

Nvidia's $100 billion OpenAI commitment isn't hype, it's capital allocation at scale (and we all know they have the cash flow to do it). Trump's $100k H-1B visa fee just changed the economics of hiring in tech overnight. Way too early to make any opinions on how it may sway the market, good or bad.

Gold has also hit new highs while this was happening, which tells me investors are hedging even as they chase growth.

Gold’s 40% gain since January shows how conflicted people really are about this market.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

AI spending gets serious Nvidia 
NVIDIA will invest up to $100 billion with OpenAI to build massive data centers starting in late 2026. That's real money validating the AI infrastructure story. The deal covers at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems - think millions of chips. Taiwan Semiconductor climbed on the chip manufacturing demand while Broadcom fell as investors shifted their AI supplier bets.

Tech workforce blow
Trump hit tech companies with a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas. That immediately changes hiring costs and strategies across Silicon Valley. Indian tech stocks got hammered overseas since they depend heavily on these visas. Major tech firms and Wall Street banks started warning employees about travel restrictions.

Pharma's obesity bet Pfizer 
Pfizer bought weight-loss drug developer Metsera for $4.9 billion cash. That's Pfizer's aggressive push into the obesity market after their own drug candidate failed. The sector is worth over $100 billion as demand explodes for these treatments.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock indexes, past three sessions

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.4% ) 
The OpenAI partnership commits to buying 4-5 million Nvidia chips over multiple years, starting with deployments in late 2026. That's the largest AI infrastructure deal ever announced and gives Nvidia clear revenue visibility through 2027.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 5.5% ) 
Named Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs while Safra Catz moves to executive vice chair after a decade running the company. Separately, Oracle will control TikTok's algorithm and store all US user data, extending a relationship that already generates 5% of Oracle's cloud revenue.

Pfizer $PFE ( ▲ 0.38% ) 
Bought obesity drug developer Metsera $MTSR for $4.9 billion cash after Pfizer's own weight-loss drug failed in trials. The deal adds multiple obesity drug candidates to compete in a market worth over $100 billion as demand explodes for these treatments.

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 4.19% ) 
Hit highest levels since December as iPhone 17 demand signals stayed strong. Lead times stretched to 26 days globally versus 17 days for last year's launch. T-Mobile reported its biggest iPhone weekend ever, with 75% of sales being Pro models. Wedbush raised its price target to $310.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 2.31% ) 
Approached 2025 highs as investors focused on robotaxi plans and new products. Momentum got a boost from Elon Musk's $1 billion share purchase last week, showing confidence in the company's direction.

T-Mobile US $TMUS ( ▼ 0.55% ) 
COO Srini Gopalan will become CEO on November 1, replacing Mike Sievert who moves to vice chairman. Gopalan comes from parent company Deutsche Telekom and will focus on long-term strategy while maintaining operational continuity.

Fox Corporation $FOXA ( ▲ 2.77% ) 
Rose on reports that Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch could invest in the TikTok deal through Fox, potentially adding media expertise to the investor consortium.

Other Notable Company News

ASML $ASML ( ▲ 2.77% ) 
Got a Buy rating upgrade after analyst noted strong orders building for its $300+ million chip-making machines. These extreme ultraviolet systems are essential for making the most advanced processors and deliveries are booked into 2027.

Constellation Energy $CEG ( ▲ 4.3% ) 
Nuclear power company rose on analyst view that AI data centers will drive massive electricity demand. Nuclear plants can provide 24/7 power that data centers need, giving these stocks a premium as AI grows.

Teradyne $TER ( ▲ 12.39% ) 
Jumped after price target increase highlighting new business testing Nvidia's AI chips at Taiwan Semiconductor plants. The partnership positions Teradyne in the AI chip testing market.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 4.14% after last week's rate cut. That's normal - yields often rise right after the Fed cuts rates, just like they did last year in September ’24.

Wall Street thinks the Fed will cut rates faster than Fed officials themselves expect.

Friday's inflation report will settle the debate. If inflation stays low, the Fed keeps cutting and stocks rally. If inflation heats up, bond yields jump and expensive tech stocks typically hurt.

Policy Watch

H-1B visa fee
Trump's new $100,000 annual fee for work visas immediately raises hiring costs for tech companies. Indian tech stocks fell sharply since India supplies over 70% of H-1B workers.

TikTok deal structure 
New U.S. company controls domestic operations with American majority ownership. Oracle $ORCL stores all U.S. user data and controls the core algorithm.

Fed officials split on rate cuts
New Fed Governor Stephen Miran wants rates cut by nearly 2 percentage points. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned against cutting too aggressively. Powell speaks Tuesday.

Government funding deadline 
September 30 deadline approaches after Senate rejected both parties' proposals. Shutdowns can create late-day volatility but historically don't derail markets long-term.

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What to Watch

Inflation data Friday 
The Fed's preferred inflation measure comes out Friday morning. If it shows cooling prices, expect rate cut odds to jump and tech stocks to rally. If inflation stays hot, bond yields spike and growth stocks get hit.

Powell speaks Tuesday 
ed Chair's first comments since the rate cut. If he sounds dovish about more cuts, stocks rally. If he sounds cautious, expect volatility. Watch for any hints about October's meeting.

Tech companies respond to visa fees 
Major tech firms will announce how they're handling the new $100,000 H-1B fees. Watch for hiring freezes, salary increases, or moves to shift work overseas. This hits Q4 earnings.

Government shutdown risk by Sept. 30
If Congress can't agree on funding, markets get choppy in the final trading days. History shows shutdowns don't hurt stocks long-term, but they create short-term swings.

Nvidia's AI timeline 
Watch for more details on the OpenAI partnership and when other companies will announce similar deals. This determines how long the AI boom lasts and which suppliers benefit.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John