September 21st Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

After the Dow's worst week since March and the Fed's first rate hike in three years, I'll gladly take a green open. Futures are higher and the 10-year yield just slipped back under 5%.

Iran's president is at the UN tomorrow and Xi is at the White House Thursday, and either meeting can move oil more than anything the Fed says

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Keeps Falling, but Shipping It Costs a Record

Oil is down four straight days, with the global benchmark near $100.50. Hiring a supertanker out of the Persian Gulf now costs about $26 a barrel, roughly a quarter of what the oil is worth. Refiners pay for both, so gas and diesel can stay expensive even as crude falls. Trafigura, one of the world's biggest oil traders, launched its own tanker company this morning, which tells you it expects the squeeze to last.

2. Chip Stocks Are Running Ahead of What China Agreed To

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a system on Sunday for the U.S. and China to warn each other about dangerous AI incidents. That was enough to put chip stocks back in the lead ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. China's state media only confirmed that AI was discussed. The bigger prize for markets is extending the U.S.-China trade truce before it expires in November.

3. A Fed Official Just Named AI Spending as an Inflation Problem

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, usually one of the Fed's more patient voices, said heavy AI investment may be pushing demand faster than the economy can keep up. When inflation comes from strong demand, the Fed's answer is higher rates. Traders now see about even odds of another hike in October. This morning's chip rally is a bet on more of that same spending.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▼ 1.56% )  
Higher after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount $PSKY ( ▼ 3.86% ) discussed a $1.5 billion investment in California production to settle the 12 state lawsuit blocking its Warner takeover. New York and Connecticut are still holding out, so the settlement isn't done.

Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 5.38% )  
Higher after agreeing to embed a team inside Anthropic to stress test its AI models, with each company putting about $1 billion into the effort over five years. The stock is down sharply this year on fears AI will take business from consultants, and the deal puts Accenture directly in AI work.

Novo $NVO ( ▲ 0.12% )  
Lower after its long term targets disappointed at Monday's investor day. Novo expects revenue to grow only in line with drug industry peers through 2030, as the U.S. patent on the key ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic expires in 2032.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.18% )  
Higher, leading a chip rally with AMD and Dell on optimism around U.S. China AI talks. AI stocks sold off last week after leaders at Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI called for slowing AI development.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 11.66% )  
Higher as Bitcoin topped $85,000 overnight, its highest level since January. Regulators moved last week to write crypto rules without waiting for Congress, and traders betting against Bitcoin were forced out of more than $300 million in positions.

Critical Metals $CRML ( ▲ 34.32% )  
Higher after Trump announced a security deal with Denmark and Greenland on Friday that expands the U.S. military presence on the island. The company is developing a rare earths mine in southern Greenland, and the Wall Street Journal reports the deal eases the way for U.S. businesses there.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Iran's President at the UN (Tuesday)
Masoud Pezeshkian addresses the General Assembly, and Trump says he's "probably" open to meeting him. Tehran's price for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is that the U.S. lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions. Any give on that condition matters more for oil than a handshake.

New York Fed's John Williams Speaks (Tuesday)
Williams votes on every rate decision, so he's a real read on October after Goolsbee's warning. TD expects him to stay noncommittal. If he echoes Goolsbee on demand, watch the 2-year Treasury yield, which tracks rate expectations most closely.

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