September 18th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman this morning after 56 years in the seat, handing it to his son Howard. "Father Time always wins," he wrote.
Buffett spent six decades teaching investors that patience pays, which feels like the right mantra for this market over the last few months.

Crude is lower this week, but diesel just hit another record yesterday after close, and diesel is what moves trucks and food.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. AI Labs Want a Slowdown but Keep Buying Data Center Space
Anthropic and OpenAI are hunting for smaller data center deals in the U.K., the Nordics and the U.S., sources told CNBC. Smaller sites come online faster and can handle the everyday work of running AI for users. South Korea's chip exports in early September ran about three and a half times last year's pace. Slower model upgrades would still leave strong demand for chips.

3. Stocks Have Gone Nowhere Since June, but Profits Kept Growing
The S&P 500 is about where it was in early June, while analysts kept raising their profit forecasts. When prices stall and profits rise, stocks get cheaper without falling. Investors now pay about $19 for every $1 of profit the index is expected to earn next year, per Truist. Tech got cheaper faster, falling to about $21 per dollar of profit from $32 last October.

3. China's Fuel Exports Are Helping Cool Oil
Brent crude is down a third day near $103, and Saudi repair headlines are only part of the reason. China's fuel exports rose in August, with jet fuel shipments at a record. Beijing is expected to loosen its export limits again this month to profit from higher fuel prices overseas. The Strait of Hormuz is still the risk, with just four commodity ships crossing yesterday against a recent average of 16.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

Meet the Founder Reimagining How We Farm

Clint Brauer returned to his family farm after his father developed Parkinson’s. What began as a personal mission became Greenfield Robotics: robots designed to replace herbicides with mechanical weed control.

• Born from a farmer’s personal mission

• Replace herbicides with mechanical weed control

• Help reduce chemical exposure in farming

  Now open to investors worldwide

Investors in this round can qualify for up to a 20% bonus.

Invest in Greenfield Robotics

^{This Reg A+ offering is made available through StartEngine Primary, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Please read the Offering Circular and related disclosures before investing. This investment is speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment.}

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Xenon Pharmaceuticals $XENE ( ▲ 1.04% )  

Sharply lower after pausing its depression drug trials over neuropsychiatric side effects. The pause stops new patients from joining its studies of azetukalner for major and bipolar depression, and the company expects it to be temporary.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 1.44% )  

Lower after Wells Fargo cut the stock to underweight, meaning it expects the shares to lag the market. The bank expects weaker viewer engagement and a thinner show lineup for the rest of 2026 to slow profit margin growth in 2027 and 2028.

Nucor $NUE ( ▲ 1.71% )  

Lower after forecasting third quarter earnings below analyst estimates. The steelmaker expects its raw materials business to earn less, even as its steel mills and steel products units improve.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 4.81% )  

Higher as bitcoin climbs back above $78,000, days after the Senate crypto bill failed. The company holds bitcoin as its main asset, so the stock tends to move with the coin.

Macom Technology Solutions $MTSI ( ▲ 4.52% )  

Higher after BMO upgraded the stock to outperform. BMO said the shares look cheap after falling more than a third from their 2026 high, while its data center, industrial and defense businesses held up.

Nike $NKE ( ▲ 1.62% )  

Slipping ahead of its removal from the S&P 100 on Monday. Its market value has fallen to about $53 billion, too small for the index of the largest U.S. companies, and funds that track the index have to sell before the change.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Options Expiration and Index Rebalancing (Into the Close)
Quarterly options expire today. Funds tracking the S&P 100 also have to rebalance before Nike leaves the index Monday. Both tend to pile trades into the close, so expect heavy volume and bigger moves near 4 PM. Traders bought about twice as many Intel calls as puts Thursday, and whether they roll those bets into next week will show if the bounce has legs.

Fed's Bowman and Schmid (Today)
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who votes on rates, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who doesn't, both speak today. Warsh has said he wants to avoid hinting at the next move, so their comments are the best read on October.

Today’s Sponsor

How Jennifer Aniston’s LolaVie brand grew sales 40% with CTV ads

The DTC beauty category is crowded. To break through, Jennifer Aniston’s brand LolaVie, worked with Roku Ads Manager to easily set up, test, and optimize CTV ad creatives. The campaign helped drive a big lift in sales and customer growth, helping LolaVie break through in the crowded beauty category.

Learn more