September 17th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Stocks are winning back a good chunk of yesterday's Fed selloff, chipmakers out front per usual. B

Before reading too much into one morning, I looked at what stocks usually do after the Fed's first hike in a cycle. Across seven cycles since 1988, the S&P 500 slipped for about six weeks on average, stocks recover those initial losses over the next five to six weeks.

Looking further out, the S&P 500 averages a 4% gain at six months and roughly 9% after 12 months. Just some fun stats to start your Thursday morning, not putting much weight on that personally.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Traders Still Expect More Rate Hikes Than the Fed Does

Traders are betting on about three more rate hikes over the next year, based on LSEG data. The typical Fed official sees just one more this year and none in 2027. Jefferies says this morning's bounce is the market moving toward the Fed's view. A strong job market could slow that down, and first-time unemployment filings fell to 196,000 last week, below the 207,000 forecast.

2. Saudi Arabia Is Patching Its Pipeline and Asking China for Help

Saudi Arabia aims to bring half of its damaged East-West pipeline back within days and all of it in about six weeks. The Saudis also turned to China, which privately pressed Iran to rein in Yemen's Houthis, according to Reuters. U.S. crude is back under $100, and cheaper oil is pulling bond yields down with it. Iran's answer was that peace depends on ending the war, and the Houthis have been advancing on a key Red Sea shipping lane.

3. Higher Rates Are Already Hitting Homebuilders

Housing starts, which count new homes breaking ground, fell to a yearly pace of 1.275 million in August, short of the 1.3 million forecast. Lennar, one of the biggest U.S. builders, cut its full-year delivery target for the second time this year and blamed rates and a weaker market. Its profit fell by more than half from a year ago. The company also expects fewer new orders next quarter than it just booked..

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Generac $GNRC ( ▲ 0.05% )  

is higher after securing a deal to supply backup generators for Amazon’s data centers. Expected deliveries total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028.

Fluence Energy $FLNC ( ▼ 19.56% )  

is sharply lower after cutting its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $2.4 billion. It previously expected $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion.

Lennar $LEN ( ▲ 0.65% )  

is lower after quarterly earnings of $1.19 a share missed the $1.28 estimate. Revenue also missed expectations, and earnings were nearly half the year-ago level.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 3.0% )  

reversed lower after announcing plans to raise capital through stock and convertible bond offerings.

Arm Holdings $ARM ( ▲ 0.89% )  

is higher after comments from CEO Rene Haas. He expressed greater confidence in meeting demand for the company’s new data center chip.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.22% )  

is higher after appointing Alexandre Arnault to its board. Arnault is deputy CEO of LVMH’s Moët Hennessy.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

AI Safety Summit (Today)

At today’s summit in Scotland, watch for commitments that change development schedules or infrastructure spending. Those could affect supplier sales forecasts; general safety principles would leave the earnings implications unclear.

Diesel Export Policy

Senate leader John Thune has said he is open to exploring a diesel export ban. If that becomes a proposal, refinery output matters: analyst Andy Lipow warns restrictions could reduce production and raise other fuel prices.

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