September 16th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

The market's basically holding its breath ahead of the Fed.

Big money doesn’t want to make big moves when Powell could change the tempo tomorrow.

Retail sales crushed this morning but nobody really cares → everyone's just waiting for Powell tomorrow. Oracle got some juice from the TikTok news, gold keeps hitting records, and the political drama around Fed governors is peak 2025.

Let's dig in...

Today’s Big Picture

1. Fed decision setup

Markets expect a quarter-point rate cut tomorrow, but Powell's tone and the Fed's updated rate projections matter more than the cut itself. Trading desks warn stocks could sell off if his guidance matches expectations rather than sounding more dovish.

2. Consumer stays resilient

Retail sales jumped 0.6% in August, beating forecasts by double, with July also revised higher. The strong spending data gives the Fed cover to cut rates slowly, meaning Powell will likely sound measured about future cuts tomorrow.

3. U.S. TikTok framework

The U.S. and China reached a deal framework putting Oracle at the center of TikTok's U.S. operations, with American investors controlling 80% of the new structure. This builds on Oracle's momentum from last week's massive cloud bookings surprise that pushed its backlog near $500 billion.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week so Far

Stock Spotlight

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 1.76% ) 
gained on the TikTok framework deal that puts the company at the center of U.S. operations. Last week's massive cloud bookings beat already had the stock moving on AI demand.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 2.23% ) 
announced a $5 billion Virginia manufacturing plant for cancer drugs. It's the first of four U.S. facilities planned to come online within five years as the company scales production.

New York Times $NYT ( ▲ 0.04% ) 
dropped after Trump filed a $15 billion defamation lawsuit. Legal costs and distraction come as ad spending remains weak.

Big Name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.56% ) 
crossed $3 trillion in market cap, joining Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia in the exclusive club. Shares cooled as traders took profits ahead of the Fed.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.81% ) 
faced pressure on reports of weak demand for its China-focused RTX6000D chip. Chinese antitrust allegations added to the headwinds.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 1.5% ) 
committed $30 billion to AI infrastructure in the UK as the company continues global capacity expansion to meet demand.

Other Notable Company News

Bloom Energy $BE ( ▲ 2.53% ) 
got a Morgan Stanley target hike tied to Oracle's AI data center partnership. The analyst sees Oracle's bookings strength benefiting Bloom's fuel cell business.

GameStop $GME ( ▼ 0.89% ) 
extended its eight-day winning streak after Q2 profits beat on collectibles and accessories sales.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 1.97% ) 
reported positive obesity drug trial results and plans FDA approval for higher-dose Wegovy to compete with Eli Lilly's Zepbound.

Citi $C ( ▲ 0.69% ) 
stayed Wells Fargo's top bank pick with raised targets across the big bank group. The firm cited scale advantages and stronger capital markets activity.

Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 2.79% ) 
dropped on an FDA warning letter about compounded weight-loss drug claims.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.037% as investors positioned for tomorrow's rate cut.

The bond buying also pushed gold to fresh record highs above $3,700.

Traders are watching for Powell's tone on jobs weakness versus stubborn inflation in categories like housing and services. Lower yields help growth stocks but squeeze bank margins.

Policy Watch

Fed meeting
The quarter-point cut is locked in for Wednesday. What matters is how many more cuts Powell signals for the rest of the year and whether he sounds dovish or cautious. Stephen Miran votes for the first time after being sworn in today.

TikTok resolution
The framework gives Oracle a central role in U.S. operations under an 80% American-controlled structure. Users would migrate to a new app already built. Final approval still needed.

Corporate reporting shift
The SEC is reviewing Trump's push to move companies from quarterly to twice-yearly earnings reports. This would reduce compliance costs but limit investor information flow.

Trade talks continue
Treasury expects more negotiations before November's reciprocal tariff deadline. Trump meets the UK Prime Minister Thursday for broader diplomatic discussions.

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What to Watch

Fed tone tomorrow 2pm: If Powell sounds cautious about more cuts, expect rotation out of Tech $XLK into Financials $XLF. If he's dovish, mega-caps stay in charge.

Oracle TikTok updates: Any legal challenges or timeline delays could move the stock and Communication Services $XLC.

Consumer discretionary earnings: With strong retail sales data, watch for beats in upcoming retail earnings to confirm spending strength.

The market has strong opinions priced in. Trade Powell's actual path, not the headline cut.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John