September 15th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

The 10-year hit 5.04% overnight, the highest since 2007, and headlines are calling for the inflation boogey man.

The bond market's own inflation forecast sits at 2.4%, same place it's been for five years. The extra yield investors ask for lending money long term is lower now than it was in July.

The Yields went up and the inflation forecast didn't. That means this isn't about prices. It's a bet on how many times Warsh raises rates.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Chips That Got Smoked Monday Are Green This Morning
Nvidia, AMD, Intel and Micron are all higher before the bell, the exact names that took the worst of Monday's selling. Nothing operational changed overnight. No order was canceled and no company cut guidance, which is what an actual spending slowdown looks like. A selloff built on three weekend essays did not get a second day.

2. Yields And Oil Both Round-Tripped Before The Open
The 10-year touched 5.041 overnight, the highest since 2007, and has already handed most of it back. Brent did the same, past $108 early and back near $105. The two reversed together inside one morning, which is the oil-and-rates link doing exactly what BMO's 0.96 reading says it does. Crude is the cleanest tell for where the bond market goes from here.

3. A Week Ago The Hike Was Close To A Coin Flip
Seven days ago the market put the odds of a quarter point tomorrow at 59 out of 100. This morning it is 93. That repricing happened while oil climbed and before anyone at the Fed said a word. The VIX is under 17 and falling into it, so the stock market is pricing no stress at all from a 19-year high in yields.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

You're Invited: Investing Moves to Boost After-Tax Returns

You've worked hard to fund your portfolio — your investment strategy should work just as hard to maximize your after-tax returns.

On September 17, join Range's CFPs and CPAs live for the practical moves that put more of your returns back in your pocket.

What we'll cover:

• Investment moves to maximize your after-tax returns

• How tax-loss harvesting can lower the taxes you owe

• When direct indexing works (and when it doesn't)

• How to build a diversified portfolio that reduces tax drag.

Range is all-in-one AI wealth management — tax, investments, retirement, and estate in one place. Bring your questions for the live Q&A. Free to attend, and seats are limited.

Reserve your spot today

^{This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Range defines "high earners" as households with income over $300k.}

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Dave & Buster's $PLAY ( ▼ 7.38% )  
Down sharply after second quarter revenue of $544.1 million came in under the $556.8 million consensus. The larger miss was on profit, an adjusted loss of 27 cents a share against the 18 cent gain analysts modeled.

Bank of America $BAC ( ▼ 5.14% )  
Fell Monday and pulled the bank group down with it. Moynihan told analysts that investment banking fees, the money the bank earns advising on deals and underwriting securities, will fall more than 10 percent in the third quarter against 50 percent growth in the second.

Waystar $WAY ( ▲ 6.09% )  
Up double digits on a Reuters report that the healthcare software company is exploring options including a sale. No buyer is named and the company has not confirmed anything, so the move is running entirely on the report.

Enova International $ENVA ( ▲ 1.45% )  
Down after the online lender withdrew its regulatory applications to buy Grasshopper Bancorp, which ends the deal. Enova reaffirmed third quarter and full year guidance in the same release and said it will accelerate buybacks.

Etsy $ETSY ( ▲ 2.34% )  
Up on an Oppenheimer upgrade to outperform from perform with a $90 target. The move is running on the analyst call, which argues AI-driven search will push more traffic to online marketplaces.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 9.24% )  
Down with bitcoin near $77,000, and Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 1.56% ) and Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 4.56% ) are moving with it. Gold is lower this morning too while the dollar index sits at a two week high above 99, so crypto is selling alongside the safe havens instead of against them.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Bessent Before House Financial Services (Today)
He will tout the Iran campaign and low-end wage gains, per advance testimony obtained by CNBC. The part that matters is Treasury's bond buyback program, which has already failed to calm the long end. Nearly half the fund managers in Bank of America's September survey expect it to do nothing to yields, and almost a third expect it to push them higher.

When The Hike Doesn't Work (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET)
The hike is priced, so the projections at 2:00 carry the information. Sri-Kumar's argument is that a quarter point does not calm the long end at all, and sends the 10-year back above 5 with a steeper curve. If he is right, tomorrow settles nothing.

Today’s Sponsor

Understand how AI is used—wherever your workforce runs it.

Knowing which AI tools employees use is only the start.

Harmonic Security reveals why they’re used and the value they create, classifying tasks by business use case across tools, shadow AI, assistants, and agents.

See what drives productivity, where adoption grows, spend overlaps, and sensitive data moves. Then scale with confidence.

Explore Harmonic Security