September 15th Market Overview

Happy Monday

China just showed us how they really negotiate, announce a TikTok deal framework while simultaneously launching antitrust investigations into Nvidia and anti-dumping probes into U.S. chip companies. Give ground on the social media app, escalate pressure on the tech that really matters. Semiconductors run everything from phones to fighter jets.

Musk dropping a billion on Tesla exactly when he wants maximum leverage before Wednesday's rate cut.

Nothing about today's timing feels accidental. I see clear momentum with strong bullish catalysts setting up this week.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

China Hits Back on Chips 
China found antitrust violations at Nvidia and opened investigations into U.S. chip imports from Texas Instruments and others. Beijing is using tech companies as bargaining chips while trade talks play out.

Musk Doubles Down on Tesla Elon Musk 
bought $1 billion of Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 2.65% ) stock Friday… his biggest purchase ever and first since 2020. Options traders jumped on bullish bets, seeing this as Musk betting big on Tesla's shift toward robotics and self-driving.

TikTok Breakthrough 
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a deal framework for U.S.-controlled ownership after Madrid talks. Trump and Xi will speak Friday to finalize details. China rarely makes concessions like this - they probably want Trump to visit Beijing.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes

Stock Spotlight

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 2.65% ) 
Musk's 2.57 million share purchase sent a clear message about Tesla's direction. This marks his return to buying after four years away from open-market purchases.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.56% ) 
Market value crossed $3 trillion, joining Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia in the exclusive club. The stock gained momentum after early September's favorable antitrust ruling reduced worst-case regulatory scenarios.

California Resources $CRC ( ▲ 0.77% ) 

California approved legislation letting Kern County issue 2,000 drilling permits annually for a decade. The company immediately announced plans to acquire Berry $BRY for $717 million in all-stock, combining neighboring oil fields as the state pushes to reduce foreign oil dependence.

Western Digital $WDC ( ▲ 9.26% ) 
hit record highs after raising hard drive prices across the board, citing "unprecedented demand." AI infrastructure spending continues driving the storage theme.

Big Name Updates

Warner Bros Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 4.05% ) 
Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority-cash bid while Wells Fargo sees Netflix $NFLX as a 50/50 rival bidder. Terms could start around $25 per share from Paramount Skydance, with Netflix potentially topping out near $30.

Disney $DIS ( ▲ 0.9% ) 
Rothschild raised its price target citing the upcoming Disney+ and Hulu merger. Analysts expect higher engagement and lower subscriber churn, with combined subscribers potentially reaching 80% of Netflix's base.

UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▼ 1.48% ) 
The insurer continues seeking direct meetings with Trump administration officials while navigating government probes and payment pressures. Policy clarity remains the swing factor for margins as regulatory uncertainty weighs on the entire sector.

Other Notable Company News

Alaska Air $ALK ( ▲ 2.36% ) 
Guided third-quarter earnings per share to the low end of its $1.00-$1.40 range. Fuel costs and pricing pressure continue challenging airline profitability across the sector.

Whirlpool $WHR ( ▼ 0.85% ) 
Alleged that overseas rivals including Samsung, LG, and Haier may be undervaluing imports to evade tariffs. The company is pushing for trade enforcement as appliance competition intensifies.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.041% ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. A quarter-point cut is widely expected → what matters more is how aggressive they plan to be going forward.

• New York manufacturing data came in weak, showing the economy is slowing

• Gold hit new records as yields fall and uncertainty rises

• Bond traders are positioning for Fed guidance on future cuts

Policy Watch

Fed Rate decision and projections come Wednesday at 2 PM ET, with Chair Powell speaking at 2:30 PM. The cut is already priced in - his comments about future moves will drive markets. Senate votes Monday on Stephen Miran's nomination to join the Fed board.

U.S.-China Relations

• TikTok deal framework calls for U.S.-controlled ownership

• Details on data control and governance still being worked out

• Trump and Xi plan Friday call to finalize terms and broader trade issues

China Hits Tech Companies
China found antitrust violations at Nvidia $NVDA and opened investigations into U.S. chip imports from Texas Instruments $TXN, Analog Devices $ADI, and ON Semiconductor $ON. Beijing is using tech leverage in trade negotiations.

Corporate Reporting Changes 
Trump wants companies to report earnings twice a year instead of quarterly. The SEC would need to approve changes through a lengthy rulemaking process.

California Drilling Push 
New law lets Kern County issue 2,000 drilling permits annually for ten years. California Resources $CRC immediately announced its Berry $BRY buyout to capitalize on the policy shift.

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What to Watch

Fed's Path Forward 
The rate cut is expected - Powell's comments about how fast and how far they'll cut will drive markets. Watch for hints about whether this is one-and-done or the start of a longer easing cycle.

China's Tech Crackdown
Follow the Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.81% ) investigation timeline and whether it spreads to other U.S. tech companies. This could signal broader escalation in the tech trade war.

Streaming Consolidation 
Warner Bros Discovery $WBD bid could reshape media valuations. Deal terms will set benchmarks for the entire sector.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John