September 12th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Solid end to the week w/ the Nasdaq hitting fresh high.

Consumer confidence fell off a cliff to 55.4 - the lowest since May after the big Tariff day and way below what economists expected. The market seems to love bad economic news these days since it pretty much guarantees the Fed cuts rates next week.

Tesla kept climbing without any real reason outside of technicals, and that new crypto exchange had a solid IPO (Gemini)


Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Record Highs Meet Rate Cut Reality

The Nasdaq Composite hit a fresh all-time high as investors bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. Weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October 2021, while consumer confidence dropped to 55.4 on a 100-point scale - the lowest since May and well below the 58.1 that economists expected. This weak economic data gives Fed officials a clear reason to lower rates without looking like they're caving to Wall Street pressure.

AI and Deals Drive Leadership

Tech stayed in control with Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 7.09% ) extending its weeklong climb on hopes that cheaper borrowing costs will help car buyers.
Adobe $ADBE beat quarterly estimates while deal activity picked up steam.
Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 16.33% ) built on Thursday's record gain after takeover rumors surfaced. Gemini Space Station $GEMI ( ▲ 14.29% ) I made a strong public debut, opening at $37.01 after pricing shares at $28.

Consumer Weakness Signals Holiday Risk

September consumer confidence fell below forecasts, with economists at Comerica Bank warning of a "disappointing" setup for holiday spending. The drop reflects growing worries about tariffs, grocery bills, and job security. This weakness could hurt retailers and other consumer-focused companies heading into their most important quarter.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week so Far

Stock Spotlight

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 7.09% ) 
up on bets that lower interest rates will make car loans cheaper and boost sales. The electric vehicle maker climbed without company news as traders bet on Fed rate cuts.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 0.34% ) 
beat third-quarter expectations, earning $5.31 per share on revenue of $5.99 billion. Analysts expected $5.18 per share on $5.91 billion in sales. The maker of Photoshop and Acrobat showed businesses are still spending on design tools.

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 16.33% ) 
rose after Thursday’s jump on reports that Paramount Skydance wants to buy the company. The media company owns HBO, CNN, and the Discovery Channel.

RH $RH ( ▼ 4.18% )
dropped after missing quarterly targets and cutting its full-year growth forecast to between 9% and 11%. The luxury furniture company blamed $30 million in new tariff costs and warned inflation will worsen through 2026.

Gemini Space Station $GEMI ( ▲ 14.29% ) 
rose on its first day as a public company, opening at $37.01 after pricing shares at $28 and hitting $40.71. The cryptocurrency exchange run by the Winklevoss twins is now worth about $4.4 billion.

Big Name Updates

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 1.82% ) 
rose after extending its partnership with OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. The two companies had difficult summer negotiations, so keeping the deal removes uncertainty about Microsoft’s AI strategy.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 2.39% ) 
rose after starting shipments of Nvidia’s newest AI chips to customers worldwide. Companies continue buying AI hardware despite economic concerns.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 5.05% ) 
fell despite landing a $60 billion contract to provide computing power to OpenAI over five years. Investors question whether OpenAI, which makes about $13 billion annually, can afford such commitments.

Other Notable Company News

Six Flags Entertainment $SIX ( ▼ 3.44% ) 
rose after reporting higher attendance and strong early sales for 2026 season passes.

Pfizer $PFE, Moderna $MRNA, BioNTech $BNTX, and Novavax $NVAX fell after reports that federal health officials plan to link Covid-19 vaccines with 25 child deaths during next week’s CDC meeting.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 0.31% ) rose after JPMorgan kept its Buy rating and set a $20 price target for December 2026. The bank cited the airline’s debt reduction and strong international routes.

Joby Aviation $JOBY ( ▲ 2.34% ) 
rose after joining a White House program to test flying cars - aircraft that take off and land like helicopters but fly like planes.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to around 4.06% heading into the Fed meeting. This week saw the yield curve shift shape, with short rates firming while long rates eased - a pattern that signals growth concerns.

• Gold held above $3,690 per ounce and tracked toward a record settlement

• The steepening curve benefits financial sector net interest margins

Policy Watch

Fed Meeting (Sept. 16-17)
Futures markets price in a 25 basis point cut with near certainty.

The Summary of Economic Projections will frame the growth and inflation outlook, while Chair Powell's tone on labor market softening matters for the yield curve.

Treasury-China Talks
Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Spain to discuss:

• Money laundering concerns

• Broader trade issues

• TikTok's uncertain future ahead of a potential U.S. ban

Energy Sanctions
The U.K. announced new sanctions targeting Russian crude shipments, which supported oil prices on supply risk concerns.

Today’s Sponsor

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What to Watch

1. Fed Meeting Next Week

Watch for a quarter-point rate cut and Powell's comments about future cuts. More cuts ahead means growth stocks like tech continue leading. Fewer cuts means value stocks and financials get a boost.

2. Holiday Retail Setup

Consumer confidence crashed in September. Watch earnings guidance from retailers like Target $TGT ( ▼ 1.63% ) and Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 0.89% ) for signs shoppers are pulling back ahead of the holidays.

3. Deal Activity in Media

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD could see more movement if the Paramount Skydance bid goes through. Media stocks often move together on merger news.

4. New IPO Performance

Gemini $GEMI and Black Rock Coffee Bar $BRCB trading patterns will signal whether investors want new deals or are getting cautious.

5. Vaccine Policy Impact

Next week's CDC meeting could move Pfizer $PFE, Moderna $MRNA, BioNTech $BNTX, and Novavax $NVAX if officials link vaccines to child deaths.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John