September 10th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Oil over $100, the ten-year near 5 percent, and a folding iPhone that costs two grand. Stocks opened lower with small caps taking the worst of it, which is what happens when rates are doing the driving. Not a panic, just a repricing with real war headlines still driving some volatiltiy.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. In Line Was Not Good Enough
Wholesale prices rose four tenths of a percent in August, exactly what economists forecast, after barely moving in July. Odds of a Fed hike next Wednesday still went from just above sixty percent yesterday to seventy-four this morning. Nothing in the report caused that. Oil did, and consumer prices tomorrow are the last thing the committee sees before it votes.

2. The War Just Reached The Mortgage Market
US crude crossed $100 and Brent went above $105 as attacks around Hormuz continue. The ten-year Treasury yield pushed past 4.9 percent, its highest in about three years. The thirty-year mortgage rate followed it to 6.97 percent, the highest since May of last year. This is where the war stops being a headline and starts being a bill.

3. Europe Is Selling Its Bonds Too
The ECB raised rates and said inflation will stay well above target for an extended period. Traders immediately priced in another increase by year end, and the German ten-year moved toward 3.5 percent. Higher yields over there give European money less reason to fund American debt over here. That explains a failed $6 billion buyback better than anything happening in Washington does.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.28% )  
Up the morning after an event the stock closed lower during. The news is pricing: the foldable iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 and the iPhone 18 Pro moved up a hundred dollars to $1,199, an increase Apple attributes to memory costs. Apple also put its own C2 modem in the Duo, and chip analyst Ben Bajarin expects Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▼ 2.48% ) designed out of the iPhone entirely by next year's model.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 6.55% )  
Up on a JPMorgan upgrade tied to the company's recent AI product announcements, with the firm pointing to real upside as those models roll out. Nothing new from the company itself, and it is one of the few large technology names higher while chip stocks trade lower this morning.

Macy's $M ( ▼ 4.19% )  
Down despite beating on revenue at $4.87 billion against $4.83 billion expected and raising full year guidance again. Bloomingdale's comparable sales grew more than eleven percent while the flagship Macy's brand grew barely one. Reported earnings of 40 cents a share may not be comparable to the 37 cent estimate, which is the likely reason the beat is not holding.

American Eagle Outfitters $AEO ( ▼ 1.92% )  
Down on guidance rather than the quarter itself. Comparable sales fell about one percent against a call for a smaller decline, and current quarter operating income guidance of $110 million to $115 million landed under the $124.3 million analysts modeled.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▼ 5.36% )  
Up on a fiscal first quarter that came in at more than double the estimate, with adjusted earnings of 59 cents a share against 25 cents expected on revenue of $480 million versus $456 million. The drone maker beat on both lines, which puts the rest of the defense group in focus.

Freeport-McMoRan $FCX ( ▼ 8.45% )  
Down alongside Southern Copper $SCCO ( ▲ 0.34% ) on a move in the metal, with no company news behind either. Copper set a record high earlier in the session and then reversed after a year of gains driven by tariff threats, and the miners carry the most direct exposure to the price.

What to Watch

Want to Know about this years upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Treasury Buyback (1:40 PM ET)
The Treasury buys up to $6 billion of ten to twenty year notes this afternoon, then sells $22 billion of thirty-year bonds. Buying the middle of the curve while selling the long end is a rotation, not a reduction in supply. BMO said this week it would not be surprised to see the ten-year touch 5 percent, and a weak auction gets there before the Fed does.

Oracle After The Close
Down seventeen percent this year while the index is up nearly twelve, entirely on capital spending and the debt behind it. Tonight is the first real look at whether the OpenAI infrastructure push is producing revenue or just costs. Every other AI name trades off the answer.

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