September 10th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

New records, then a pullback…sound familiar? Oracle became an AI monster overnight while Apple kept sliding after that product event that nobody seemed to care about, except me. I need a new phone as mine has now dated pre-pandemic era I might as well be using a Nokia brick at this point with how slow this thing is.

Inflation fell when everyone expected it to rise which should basically guarantees the Fed cutting next week, more stocks actually dropped than gained today (breadth) even with all the record headlines.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Oracle posted huge AI growth numbers

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 35.96% ) booked $455 billion in future orders after landing four multi-billion dollar cloud contracts. The company expects cloud revenue to hit $144 billion by fiscal 2030, up from $10.3 billion in fiscal 2025.

Database revenue from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft grew 1,529% in the quarter. The $300 billion OpenAI cloud deal makes up most of the new business. AI chip companies rallied with Broadcom , Nvidia , AMD , and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Wholesale prices dropped when they should have risen

Producer prices fell 0.1% in August versus expectations for a 0.3% increase. Core wholesale prices also dropped 0.1% against the 0.3% forecast. This clears the path for Fed rate cuts next week. Traders now see a quarter-point cut as certain, with growing odds of a half-point cut. The Mortgage rates hit 11-month lows at 6.49%, driving applications up 9.2% to three-year highs.

Markets hit records but most stocks fell (Breadth is negative today)

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs before pulling back. More individual stocks declined than advanced despite the index gains. Apple extended losses after its product event disappointed, weighing on the Dow. Klarna opened above its IPO price in its NYSE debut. Gold hit fresh records as Poland shot down Russian drones and Israel struck in Qatar.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes

Stock Spotlight

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 35.96% ) 
became an AI story overnight. Earnings and sales missed estimates, but the company booked $455 billion in future orders that overshadowed the miss. Oracle expects cloud revenue to hit $144 billion by fiscal 2030. Chairman Larry Ellison said the company will launch an AI database next month that lets customers run ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok directly on Oracle's platform. More billion-dollar customers are in the pipeline.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 3.17% ) 
kept falling after its product event. The iPhone 17 Air and limited AI features didn’t get investors excited about phone upgrades. Analysts remain cautious about demand for the world’s most valuable company.

Klarna $KLAR ( ▲ 15.45% ) 
priced its IPO at $40, above the expected range, then opened at $52. The Swedish payment company’s debut valued the firm near $15 billion and gave the IPO market more momentum.

Big Name Updates

Salesforce $CRM ( ▼ 3.77% ) 
CEO Marc Benioff wants to get revenue growth back above 10% as the company nears $50 billion in annual sales. He pointed to early signs of acceleration and AI demand driving growth.

Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▲ 0.21% ) 
unveiled its self-driving car system with BMW. The Snapdragon Ride Pilot launches on the BMW iX3 and expands to 60-100 countries by 2026.

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 1.87% ) and Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.61% ) 
got higher price targets from Bank of America. The bank expects both companies to generate more cash even if oil prices stay lower.

UnitedHealth Group $UNH ( ▼ 0.2% ) 
got positive reviews from Bernstein and Morgan Stanley. Both firms see improvements in the Medicare and health services businesses driving a turnaround.

Other Notable Company News

IonQ $IONQ ( ▼ 0.18% ) 
started a federal division led by a former Intel executive to go after government quantum computing contracts.

Spotify $SPOT ( ▼ 2.07% ) 
began offering high-quality audio to Premium users, streaming up to 24-bit/44.1 kHz files. Sonos and Amazon support comes next month.

Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH ( ▲ 0.24% )
got an outperform rating from Mizuho. Recent financial moves should boost 2026 earnings by roughly 8%.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▲ 3.77% ) 
reported August revenue of $11.6 billion, up 33.8% from last year and 3.9% from July.

Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▲ 0.39% ) 
CEO expects the 737 MAX 7 to get approved in early 2026, with flights starting later that year to smaller cities.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

• The 10-year yield fell to 4.046% after the PPI miss

• MBA 30-year mortgage rates dropped 15 basis points to 6.49%, hitting 11-month lows

• Applications jumped 9.2% with refinancing up 12.2% and purchases up 6.6%

• Housing showed immediate sensitivity to the rate decline

Policy Watch

Federal Reserve:
A federal judge blocked President Trump's attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, meaning she'll vote at next week's meeting. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Stephen Miran to a floor vote for a Fed Board seat.

Labor oversight: 
The Labor Department's inspector general opened a review into BLS data collection challenges after large payroll revisions and reduced price sampling capabilities.

Trade posture: 
The White House asked the EU to levy 100% tariffs on select Chinese and Indian goods, with the U.S. prepared to mirror those measures.

U.S.-Japan deal: 
A new memorandum outlines a potential $550 billion investment fund where Japan provides financing for U.S.-selected projects in semiconductors and critical minerals. The U.S. would receive 90% of profits after principal payback.

Energy stance: 
The Energy Secretary said U.S. oil production may plateau near current prices as the department works to lower producers' breakeven costs through regulatory relief.

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What to Watch

CPI data Thursday morning

Street expects 0.3% monthly increases for both headline and core readings. A softer print supports a 50 basis point Fed cut, while a hotter number limits easing to 25 basis points.

AI spending confirmation

Track whether Oracle's rip translates to orders at Broadcom $AVGO, Nvidia $NVDA, and Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM to confirm AI spending is accelerating.

Fed meeting next week

Watch Powell's tone and the dot plot for guidance on the pace of cuts through year-end. The size of the cut could determine which sectors lead.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John