September 10th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Fourth down day in a row, and the Nasdaq took the worst of it. Two things are steering everything right now → oil near $100 and the 10-year yield climbing toward 5%. Rumor has it Trump's advisers think the Iran war could run through 2029, and that is a very different trade than a supply scare.

Nothing here is broken, the price of patience just went up. If you are a premium member go check the breadth chart at the bottom of the market health dashboard, we are seeing something very rare right now.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Iran War Timeline

Advisers to President Trump have privately said the fighting may drag on through 2029, the Journal reported. Brent traded above $106 and West Texas crude held near $100. Traders are no longer pricing this as a supply blip.

2. The 10-Year Is Closing In On 5%

The 10-year yield hit 4.923, its highest intraday level since October 2023. BMO analysts wrote that talk of a 5 handle is back and they would not be surprised to see it. Every valuation model on Wall Street runs through that number.

3. Europe's Gas Problem Got Worse Overnight

Dutch gas hit its highest price since December 2022 after a Ukrainian drone flew more than 1,900 miles to strike a processing plant in Siberia. The European Central Bank raised rates anyway and said inflation will stay above target for an extended period. Europe goes into winter short on storage and now short on confidence.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 3.32% )  
rose after Wall Street liked the $2,000 starting price on the iPhone Duo. Estimates had run as high as $2,500.

Macy's $M ( ▼ 4.32% )  
beat with 40 cents adjusted against the 37 cents expected and raised guidance. Same-store sales grew for a fifth straight quarter and the stock fell anyway.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 2.04% )  
drew an underweight rating and a $31 target from Morgan Stanley. Alex Straton said the market prices in too much China growth too soon.

Blue Chip Stocks
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Big Name Updates

Nasdaq $NDAQ ( ▼ 1.97% )  
is putting $100 million into Payward, the parent of Kraken, to build tokenized stock trading by the second quarter of 2027.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 1.54% )  
slipped even after reporting much stronger August revenue than a year ago.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 6.99% )  
earned 59 cents adjusted against the 25 cents expected on $480 million in revenue.

Other Notable Company News

Energy Transfer $ET ( ▲ 0.07% )  
is set to move its primary listing to the Texas Stock Exchange, the first major company to leave New York for it.

American Eagle Outfitters $AEO ( ▼ 15.72% )  
fell on soft comparable sales and an operating income forecast of $110 million to $115 million against the $124.3 million Wall Street wanted.

SB Energy filed to go public with $430 billion in data center backlog, though most of it lands more than eight years out.

Micron Technology $MU ( ▼ 4.67% )  
and Intel $INTC both fell as higher rates hit the chip trade.

UBS $UBS ( ▼ 1.97% )  
chief Sergio Ermotti said investors have grown complacent given how much risk is stacked up.

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Sector Watch

Bond market

Treasury ran its buyback of longer-term debt this afternoon and sold 30-year bonds the same day. Yields climbed through both.

Policy watch

Fed

Wholesale prices sped up last month, in line with forecasts, which settled nothing. The reading that decides this is August PCE, and it lands after the September 16 vote. They go in without it.

• Joseph Lavorgna of SMBC Americas said that short of very weak data, the Fed was never skipping September.

• Steven Blitz of TS Lombard said Warsh will find a way not to hike unless the data corners him.

Fiscal & Trade

Trump promised every American adult $5,000 if Republicans hold Congress in November. Yields ticked up, though oil did most of that work. Near $1 trillion in new spending needs a sweep that most polls say is not coming, and then a vote in Congress. He promised $2,000 checks to low income Americans before and none arrived.

International

The European Central Bank raised rates and said inflation stays above target for a while yet. Traders now see its deposit rate ending the year at 2.75, up from 2.68 before the meeting.

• German yields moved toward 3.5. This bond selloff is global.

• The Bank of Korea warned that leveraged bets on Samsung and SK Hynix are spilling into markets outside Korea.

What to Watch

The AI Infrastructure's Backbone
10 Stocks Powering the AI Buildout

Consumer Prices, Tommorow

August consumer prices land Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Forecasts have the yearly headline flat and core ticking down, and economists will fold this into their PCE estimates the same morning.

Oracle Earnings, Today after bell

Oracle $ORCL
reports after the close. The real question is how much of its OpenAI infrastructure buildout it is funding itself.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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