October 9th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Tech bounced back after yessterday’s AI selloff, and stocks are on track for a green week.

Pretty solid considering the 10-year yield hit a 24-year high and oil sat above $100 most of the week. Banks start reporting Tuesday, so that’s what I’m watching next. More detail on that tomorrow for all premium members.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Tech Shakes Off the OpenAI Scare 
   
   OpenAI told investors it hit $50 billion in annualized revenue, not the $68 billion reported last month. That bigger number counted partner revenue, but the gap still gave the Nasdaq its worst day since mid-August on Thursday. Overnight, Bloomberg reported OpenAI expects $70 billion or more by year-end, and buyers came back to names like Oracle and Microsoft. Not everyone is sold: Nvidia-backed Firmus pulled its $5 billion IPO, saying the offer undervalued the business.
   

2. SpaceX Moves Into Wireless 
   
   SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide wireless airwaves from Grain Management to power Starlink Mobile. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all sold off hard on the threat of a new rival. Cell tower owners like American Tower and Crown Castle rallied, since a phone network still needs towers on the ground. It’ll take time, though, since SpaceX only just got approval to launch the 15,000 satellites the service needs.
   

3. Consumers Are Feeling the Pinch 
   
   The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell more than expected to 46.3, near May’s record low. Year-ahead inflation expectations hit their highest since May as $4 gas and tariffs keep pushing prices up. Lower-income families and people with smaller stock portfolios soured the most. The good news is people are still spending, helped by stock gains and a steady job market.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Humana $HUM ( ▲ 12.58% )  
hit a two-year high after Medicare ratings put nearly all its members in four-star plans or better, up from under half. The company says the bonus pay works out to about $160 extra per member each month starting in 2028.

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 0.04% )  
missed earnings for the first time in two years and cut its 2026 outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 a share, from $6.50 to $7.50. Demand is fine, fuel isn’t, with this year’s bill now running $6 billion higher.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▲ 13.13% )  
climbed to its highest price since 2021 after the New York Times reported a public-private push to speed up cancer vaccines. It’s modeled on the effort that delivered the COVID shots, and investors see Moderna as a top beneficiary.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.58% )  
slipped after Nikkei Asia reported it told suppliers to make fewer iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max parts on softer demand. Dan Ives stayed bullish in a Thursday note, calling Apple the “toll collector on the consumer AI highway.”

UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▲ 3.16% )  
saw its Medicare ratings get worse, but the company said it expected that and the stock rose.

American Express $AXP ( ▲ 0.32% )  
was fined $350 million for facilitating money laundering.

Blue Chips
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Other Notable Company News

Lumentum $LITE ( ▲ 6.42% )  
said its optical components are sold out through 2029. The CEO says it will struggle to meet demand for some products through next year.

Cboe Global Markets $CBOE ( ▲ 3.16% )  
got a double upgrade from Morgan Stanley after locking in its exclusive S&P 500 options deal through 2051. The new price target is $358, up from $258.

Valero Energy $VLO ( ▼ 2.56% )  
and two other big refiners have added a combined $224 billion in market value this year on record diesel margins.

CVS Health $CVS ( ▼ 0.48% )  
fell after its Aetna plans’ Medicare ratings came in slightly worse than Evercore expected.

Alignment Healthcare $ALHC ( ▼ 12.8% )  
took the biggest ratings drop of the bunch, and it plans to fight the results in court.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Thursday’s 30-year auction drew healthy demand, which took some pressure off yields. The dollar is on track for four straight weekly gains, its longest streak since May 2025, on bets for a December Fed hike.

Policy Watch

Fed

Trump set a November 5 White House hearing for Fed governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations. It’s his biggest push yet for more control over the Fed.

• Trump tried to fire Cook last year, but the Supreme Court ruled she hadn’t gotten a fair chance to defend herself.

Fiscal & Trade

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hired Judy Shelton to advise on currency policy, with a focus on China’s financial conditions.

• Shelton was Trump’s first-term Fed pick who couldn’t get through the Senate. She has pushed for a return to the gold standard.

Trump said the U.S. won’t attack Iran before the midterms and called talks with Tehran “productive.” Oil eased on that, then gave some of it back after reports of a ship struck off the UAE.

• Tanker attacks are spreading deeper into the Gulf, with one strike near Qatar, far from the Strait of Hormuz.
  

• On the bright side, Saudi Arabia is moving more crude through its restored East-West pipeline, which skips Hormuz entirely.
  

• In Brazil, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro edged ahead of President Lula in the first round. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF $EWZ is headed for its best week since November 2020, with the runoff later this month.

What to Watch

Banks Report Tuesday

Wells Fargo $WFC and Citigroup $C kick off bank earnings season. A new Fed survey found families are more likely to be behind on their bills than at any point since 2010. Listen for what the banks say about late payments on cards and loans.

The Midterm Window

Deutsche Bank found the S&P 500 rose in 21 of the last 23 midterm cycles, counting from a month before the vote to two months after. We’re in that window now. No guarantee, but I’ll take those odds.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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