October 6th Market Overview

Happy Monday

AMD landed a massive OpenAI deal that sent tech higher, something worth pointing out: gold and bitcoin both hit records today.

When safe havens and risk assets rally together, the market is hedging because it doesn't know what's coming. Government shutdown killed data releases before Powell speaks Thursday. I think there's more uncertainty here than the tape suggests.

P.S. Robotics and AI are converging FAST.
Miso’s kitchen robots fried 4M food baskets for brands like White Castle.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

AMD Challenges Nvidia's AI Monopoly

Advanced Micro Devices struck a multi-year OpenAI deal potentially worth over $100 billion across four years, with first chips rolling out late 2026. OpenAI gets an option to acquire up to 10% of AMD at $0.01 per share. This directly challenges Nvidia's stranglehold on AI infrastructure and fundamentally reshapes the competitive landscape.

Regional Banks Finally Consolidate

Fifth Third Bancorp $FITB agreed to buy Comerica $CMA for $10.9 billion, creating a $288 billion institution and breaking the consolidation logjam that's existed for years in Mid-tier banks.

Safe Havens and Risk Assets Rally Together

Gold pushed toward $4,000 while bitcoin set fresh records above $125,000, even as the Nasdaq gained, when traditional hedges and speculative assets move together, the market is hedging multiple scenarios simultaneously. The gov’t shutdown has killed economic data releases going into Powell's Thursday speech, meaning the Fed is flying blind on the labor market. I think the market is more uncertain than price action suggests.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 23.71% ) 
struck a multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI potentially worth over $100 billion across four years. OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct GPUs with first chips rolling out late 2026, plus an option to acquire up to 10% of AMD at $0.01 per share. This breaks Nvidia's near-monopoly in AI data center chips.

AppLovin $APP ( ▼ 2.14% ) 
plummeted after Bloomberg reported the SEC is probe. The investigation stems from a whistleblower complaint and multiple short-seller reports alleging the company violated app store terms. Stock had been up 80% this year after a 700%+ rally.

Comerica $CMA ( ▲ 12.9% ) agreed to an all-stock sale to Fifth Third $FITB ( ▼ 1.4% ) for $10.9 billion. The combined bank will have $288 billion in assets and expanded reach across the Southeast, Texas, and California.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 1.86% ) 
gained alongside bitcoin hitting fresh highs above $125,000.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.95% ) 
got a Goldman Sachs price target raise to $210 from $200, but shares lagged as traders recalibrated AI market share after the AMD-OpenAI deal. First real competition Nvidia has faced in the AI infrastructure buildout.

Verizon $VZ ( ▼ 5.22% ) 
saw CEO Hans Vestberg step down after leading the company since 2018. Former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman takes over immediately. Shares dropped on the transition.

Boeing $BA ( ▲ 1.56% )
is telling suppliers to prepare for 737 MAX production hitting 42 jets per month as soon as October, with further increases planned into 2026 that could reach 53 monthly.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 4.94% ) 
fell after closing North American stores and cutting jobs as part of "Project Bloom" turnaround efforts. Traffic and profitability remain under pressure.

Other Notable Company News

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 3.21% ) 
recovered some Friday losses after disputing a Reuters report about security flaws in a U.S. Army communications platform.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( 0.0% ) 
announced a $150 million acquisition of the Free Press, appointing founder Bari Weiss as CBS News editor in chief.

Micron $MU ( ▲ 1.71% ) 
upgraded to Overweight with price target raised to $220 from $160 on firm DDR5 pricing and room for estimate revisions.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasuries softened as investors rotated into risk assets. The 10-year yield moved higher to 4.168%.

France's debt crisis deepens - Prime Minister Lecornu resigned after less than a month, sending French 10-year yields up to 3.59%. France now pays more to borrow than Italy. A country that used to represent core European stability now pays more than the poster child for European debt problems.

Gold rallied toward $4,000, up 50% this year. Bank of America warned of "uptrend exhaustion" and potential consolidation in Q4. Nothing goes straight up forever.

Policy Watch

Government shutdown enters week two

• September jobs report delayed, more releases could slip

• White House advisor Kevin Hassett warned Trump might "start taking sharp measures" if Senate votes fail again

• Administration says layoffs could be permanent, not furloughed - different from past shutdowns

• Fed Chair Powell speaks Thursday without fresh labor market data

Heavy truck tariffs start November 1

President Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported medium and heavy trucks beginning November 1. Originally scheduled for October 1 but delayed. Based on national security concerns and separate from passenger vehicle levies.

Trade war hitting unexpected industries

U.S. spirits exports fell 9% in Q2. Canada largely boycotting American alcohol, while U.K. and Japan exports dropped over 20% each. Consumers choosing domestic spirits or imports from other countries as retaliation for U.S. tariffs.

Regional bank M&A approval climate being tested

The Fifth Third-Comerica deal will signal whether regulators support more consolidation. Bank executives watching closely after years of waiting.

Today’s Sponsor

Jeff Bezos Says This New Breakthrough is Like “Science Fiction”

He called it a “renaissance.” No wonder ~40,000 people backed Amazon partner Miso Robotics. Miso’s kitchen robots fried 4M food baskets for brands like White Castle. In a $1T industry with 144% employee turnover, that’s big. So are Miso’s partnerships with NVIDIA and Uber. Initial units of its newest robot sold out in one week. Invest before Miso’s bonus shares change on 10/9.

_{This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.}

What to Watch

1. Powell speaks Thursday without key data

Fed Chair has to guide on the rate path without the September jobs report. Market has priced in more cuts, but watch how he addresses the data blackout and whether it changes November meeting expectations.

2. Senate votes on shutdown funding this week

If these fail again, White House advisor Hassett warned Trump might "start taking sharp measures." Permanent layoffs would be a departure from past shutdowns and could move markets.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John