October 30th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Wow I guess the market decided it was going to be a bloody Halloween.

The Nasdaq had its worst day since June to finish a rough week for tech. Amazon spent $75.9 billion on data centers, warehouses and gear last quarter. Investors want proof it pays off, and I think that’s a fair ask.

Going over this all tomorrow in Saturdays premium newsletter.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Selloff Spreads to Chips While Staples Hit a Record “
   Intel and Amazon started it, and chipmakers followed, with AMD and Qualcomm among the hardest hit. Both big chip ETFs fell below their 200-day average price for the first time since mid-2025. Money moved into steadier names, with staples at an all-time high and healthcare at a 52-week high. The Nasdaq had its worst month since March 2025, while the Dow finished October higher.
   

2. Fed Officials Line Up Behind a December Hike 
   Three Fed presidents said Friday they still want to raise rates, most likely in December. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said skipping a meeting “does not change the monetary policy destination.” She and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem both shrugged off the recent market swings. So don’t count on a falling stock market to talk the Fed out of a hike.
   

3. The Binance Hack Hit Crypto Stocks Harder Than Crypto Hackers took about $6.3 billion from Binance, more than four times the old record from last year’s Bybit hack. Bitcoin fell to around $76,000, while Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood fell further. Binance set aside $6.3 billion to cover users, and about $3 billion of the stolen crypto is frozen. Crypto traders seem to believe Binance can pay.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 30.95% )  
had its worst day in more than 50 years, and the government’s stake lost about $12 billion. Costly memory chips are scaring off PC buyers, and PCs still bring in about half of Intel’s sales.

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 15.14% )  
fell even after beating estimates and announcing an 8-for-1 stock split. Its CEO expects PC, phone and data center storage to all grow next year, a sunnier view than Intel’s.

Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 29.08% )  
had its biggest drop since its 2024 IPO. Search traffic fell by over 1 million referrals a week in October as Google’s AI answers more questions.

Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 4.37% )  
beat estimates and raised its delivery forecast on strong demand for its new R2 SUV.

Big Name Updates

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.95% )  
burned $42.4 billion in cash over the past year, nearly double its 2022 record. AWS, its cloud arm, grew revenue by $3.8 billion from last quarter, its second-biggest gain ever, Morgan Stanley noted.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 5.29% )  
fell on worry that its biggest customers have overspent on AI and will pull back in 2027. Its stake in Intel also lost about $6 billion in value.

ExxonMobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.94% )  
hit a record high after third-quarter profit more than doubled to $15.4 billion. It pushed fuel production near its limits to cash in on high diesel prices.

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 1.55% )  
hit a record too, as profit nearly tripled to $9.9 billion. Its US refining earnings were five times what they were a year ago.

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 6.41% )  
broke below $140, a level that held even after 1.3 billion shares became sellable Oct. 22. It has lost more than $400 billion in market value since its Oct. 6 high.

Other Notable Company News

Caterpillar $CAT ( ▼ 3.86% )  
fell for a second day, since its generator sales to AI data centers tie it to tech.

Pinterest $PINS ( ▼ 3.04% )  
posted record users but missed on revenue, $1.17 billion versus $1.21 billion expected.

AstraZeneca $AZN ( ▲ 6.9% )  
beat estimates, and its CEO said 2027 drug trial results could be worth over $20 billion.

BP $BP ( ▲ 0.16% )  
earned $8.5 billion, well above the $6.2 billion analysts expected and nearly four times last year’s profit.

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Sector Watch

Bond market

Treasurys barely rallied while stocks fell, so bonds didn’t cushion the drop like they did on Oct. 22. New I bonds pay more starting Nov. 1, and their fixed rate is the highest since 2006.

Policy Watch

Fed

Two of the Fed’s 12 voters wanted a hike this week, and Thursday’s September inflation report came in hot.

• Logan wants at least two more quarter-point hikes, then a pause to see where things stand.

• Musalem listed what could make him wait, including a market slide big enough to make wealthy households cut back. He called that “less likely but plausible.”

• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin favors going slowly because he thinks the Fed isn’t far behind on inflation.

International

Brent crude rose to about $113 a barrel on new trouble in the Middle East and Russia.

• A small boat carrying explosives attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

• The top US commander in the Middle East briefed Trump on military options for Iran. Iran confirmed getting a letter from Vice President JD Vance but says its terms for ending the war stand.

• Ukraine hit a Russian oil refinery, ending a pause the Trump administration pushed for. Those strikes have made global diesel shortages worse.

• The Bank of Japan held rates and declared inflation on target for the first time since 2013.

What to Watch

Midterm Elections Tuesday

Some of today’s selling came from investors taking money off the table before Tuesday’s vote. Trump has repeatedly signaled he could restart airstrikes on Iran after the vote. That makes oil the market to watch.

Binance Withdrawals Reopening

Binance says customers should be able to withdraw again by Sunday. If that happens on time, it’s a good sign the exchange can pay what it promised. It’s also buying about $1.3 billion of crypto on the open market to close the gap.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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