October 24th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Markets loved today's inflation report coming in lighter than expected. The report was delayed nine days due to the shutdown, we're celebrating month old data while cruizin blind on current conditions still.

The Fed gets more ammo to cut rates, and traders are betting on it.

I'm watching how long this confidence holds without real time data. The big catalyst right now is the Xi and Trump meeting coming.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Inflation Slowed, Markets Rallied
Today’s inflation report came in slightly lower than expected. This lets the Fed keep cutting rates without looking reckless. Markets are now betting on cuts at the next two meetings.

Earnings Season Off to a Strong Start 
Third-quarter earnings are coming in better than expected. Barclays noticed that stocks are rallying more than usual when companies report good numbers, which is keeping this run going.

Google's Big Bet on AI 
Alphabet $GOOGL and AI firm Anthropic made their massive cloud partnership official. Anthropic gets access to a million of Google's custom AI chips to train its models. A multi-billion dollar deal that shows how much money is pouring into AI right now.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Ford Motor $F ( 0.0% ) 
rallied after earnings and revenue beat expectations. The numbers suggest demand for trucks and SUVs is holding up.

Deckers Outdoor $DECK ( 0.0% ) 
fell after the company lowered its sales forecast. The maker of Hoka and Ugg shoes blamed tariffs for weaker consumer demand.

IBM $IBM ( 0.0% ) 
and Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( 0.0% ) hit a breakthrough in quantum computing. IBM can now run a critical error-correction step on AMD's chips, bringing the technology closer to real-world use.

Big Name Updates

Intel $INTC ( 0.0% ) 
reported sales that beat estimates, suggesting demand for its PC chips is finally recovering.

Procter & Gamble $PG ( 0.0% ) 
reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations.

Target $TGT ( 0.0% ) 
is cutting about 1,800 corporate jobs. First major layoff in a decade.

Other Notable Company News

JPMorgan $JPM ( 0.0% ) 
rose as investors bet on more Fed rate cuts.

Wells Fargo $WFC ( 0.0% ) 
gained on the same rate-cut expectations.

Coinbase $COIN ( 0.0% ) 
got a buy rating from JP Morgan analysts, who see growth coming from its Base blockchain.

Commercial Metals $CMC ( 0.0% ) 
was upgraded by Morgan Stanley, which cited upcoming acquisitions and strong rebar prices.

Applied Materials $AMAT ( 0.0% ) 
will cut about four percent of its workforce by early 2026.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Bond yields fell after inflation came in lower than expected. The 10-year Treasury is sitting at 3.999%. The real bond action happens next week when the Fed decides on rates.

Policy Watch

The Fed
Today's inflation number clears the way for more rate cuts. Markets expect cuts at both remaining meetings this year. I'm watching to see if Powell acknowledges the tariff inflation risk some economists are warning about.

Government Shutdown
We're flying blind on economic data. The White House said we might not get October's inflation report at all if the shutdown drags on. Hard to trade what you can't see.

Fiscal & Trade
Trump walked away from Canada trade talks over an Ontario ad campaign featuring Ronald Reagan. Ontario's Premier says he'll pause the ads after this weekend to restart negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump and Xi meet next week in South Korea. Any movement on China tariffs could shake markets.

Today’s Sponsor

Thousands of Investors Are Backing This Cocktail Bar’s Major Expansion

On New Year’s Eve in 2006, 24-year-old David Kaplan opened the first Death & Co as a “blink and you’ll miss it” cocktail bar in Manhattan’s East Village.

Today, Death & Co is one of the most recognized names in cocktails.

The bars welcome more than 10,000 visitors each week and the company is on track to do $20M this year.

No surprise, considering they’re listed in “The World’s 50 Best Bars” and their cocktail book was the first drinks book to ever win the James Beard Award for “Book of the Year.”

Building off their iconic Death & Co brand, they have their sights set on a new frontier: building a global hospitality business.

With the company projecting 5.5X revenue growth in just four years, scaling 200% faster than leading hospitality brands, investors see a unique opportunity.

That’s why 3,000+ people have invested in Death & Co already. But the investment opportunity ends on Oct. 30.

Don’t miss your chance to invest in Death & Co.

_{This is a paid advertisement for Death & Company’s Regulation A offering. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please read the offering circular at invest.deathandcompany.com.}

What To Watch

Federal Reserve Meeting 
The main event next week is the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. While a rate cut is widely expected, Jerome Powell's press conference will be the real focus for any hints about future policy.

Big Tech Earnings 
Next week is the busiest of the earnings season. We'll hear from Microsoft $MSFT, Alphabet $GOOGL, Meta Platforms $META, Amazon $AMZN, and Apple $AAPL.

Trump-Xi Meeting 
The two leaders are scheduled to meet in South Korea next week. Any developments on the trade front, positive or negative, could move markets.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John