October 23rd Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Stocks are opening lower, with the Dow taking the biggest hit and the Nasdaq holding up better after yesterdays brutal selloff. The Dow is still on track to finish the week higher, while the Nasdaq heads for a small loss.

Yeah yea money is shifting around the market a bit, which we talked about last Saturday. Oil cant go much higher before things really start breaking.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Traders Dropped Their Fed Hike Bets as Oil Kept Climbing

Traders see almost no chance the Fed raises rates next week, down from about one in three a month ago. The last of those bets faded Thursday as investors piled into government bonds. Oil kept climbing anyway, with U.S. crude above $100 and global prices at their highest since May. If oil keeps rising into Wednesday’s Fed meeting, those hike bets could come back quickly.

2. SpaceX Moves Closer to Becoming a Phone Company

SpaceX is in talks to lease about 80,000 U.S. cell towers, roughly what a nationwide network needs, Bloomberg reported. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are giving back Thursday’s gains, while tower owners Crown Castle and American Tower rise. SpaceX has already committed about $30 billion to wireless airwaves. A deal would give the carriers a deep-pocketed new rival and the tower owners a big new tenant.

3. The Safe Trade Got Expensive

More than 300 stocks in the S&P 500 rose Thursday, even as the index fell. Money left AI for steady names like Procter & Gamble, which had its best day since March 2020. For every dollar of profit expected next year, investors now pay more for P&G than for Nvidia. And P&G expects its profits to grow only slightly this year.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 17.57% )  

extending Thursday’s steep drop, which began when partial data from its cancer vaccine trial with Merck leaked online. The vaccine maker’s full results looked better than Wall Street expected and get presented at a medical conference Saturday.

Deckers Outdoor $DECK ( ▼ 0.25% )  

falling premarket because sales of both its HOKA running shoes and UGG boots missed estimates. Revenue was $1.48 billion versus $1.51 billion expected, and tariff refunds helped lift its profit outlook.

Western Digital $WDC ( ▼ 6.43% )  

lower premarket because its finance chief said expansion spending will run a bit above target for two years. The maker of hard drives for data centers posted revenue of $4.38 billion, above the $4.14 billion expected.

Bloom Energy $BE ( ▼ 8.7% )  

lower premarket because it spent more cash than it brought in last quarter. The maker of fuel cells for data centers more than doubled sales to $1.24 billion and raised its outlook.

Comfort Systems $FIX ( ▼ 7.38% )  

down premarket because its profit margins fell short, even though sales and earnings beat. The heating, cooling and electrical contractor’s backlog of signed work nearly doubled to more than $17 billion.

Newmont $NEM ( ▼ 2.62% )  

slipping premarket after warning its cost per ounce will rise in 2027, with gold prices also lower. The world’s largest gold miner beat profit estimates and cut its cost forecast for this year.

What to Watch

Upcoming IPO’s
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year

Two Inflation Reads (9:45 and 10:00 AM ET)
S&P Global surveys businesses on their costs, and the University of Michigan asks consumers what inflation they expect. In September, business costs rose at the fastest pace since 2022. If either number climbs again, near zero odds of a Fed hike will be hard to defend.

Moody’s on France (Tonight)
Moody’s still rates France a step above S&P and Fitch, and economists expect a cut tonight to match them. A downgrade could push French borrowing costs higher again when markets reopen Monday.

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