October 23rd Market Overview

Happy Friday

Quick question: how much did you pay for a gallon of gas this week?
(Just shoot me a reply)

The S&P 500 went nowhere this week, but a lot changed underneath it.

Today sellers gave tech a break and went after the safe stocks, U.S. crude topped $100.

Again the theme this week, money is changing seats but not leaving the market

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Even the Safe Stocks Fell

Consumer staples, utilities and healthcare all fell, the same safe groups investors have piled into for two weeks. Staples went into today up double digits for October. Chip stocks like Micron and AMD bounced, which kept the Nasdaq flat while the Dow took the hit. “Eventually, you run out of people willing to do that sprint,” said Jed Ellerbroek of Argent Capital.

2. Expensive Oil Hits Airlines and Dollar Stores

Brent crude rose to $116.72 a barrel, its highest since April 29, on fears of new fighting with Iran. United, Delta, American and the dollar stores all fell on fuel costs. Wells Fargo estimates diesel will cost Dollar Tree about $25 million in profit this quarter. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, the ones selling the oil, hit all-time highs.

3. AI’s Suppliers Are Falling Harder Than Its Spenders

Bloom Energy more than doubled its sales last quarter, and Comfort Systems nearly doubled its backlog to $17.8 billion. Both stocks fell sharply for a second straight day. Since Oct. 6, data center builders are down nearly five times as much as Big Tech, which pays them. If AI spending slows, Big Tech saves money and its suppliers lose sales.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock spotlight

American Express $AXP ( ▼ 3.73% )  
is cutting about 3,500 jobs, saying it needs to “prepare for AI.” Revenue of $14.5 billion also came in under the $14.8 billion Wall Street expected.

AT&T $T ( ▼ 7.41% )  
fell further after the open on a report that SpaceX wants access to 80,000 U.S. cell sites. Bernstein said a commitment that size “could be a point of no return” for SpaceX’s wireless plans.

Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▲ 7.28% )  
and Cloudflare $NET led cybersecurity stocks higher. An Evercore ISI survey found companies plan to spend more protecting their data, AI and cloud systems.

Big name updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.14% )  
briefly passed Nvidia as the most valuable company on the day its $1,999 iPhone Duo hit stores. Nvidia took the lead back later, with both worth about $5.1 trillion.

Blue Chips
MarketBeat lists “7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Add To Your Forever Portfolio”

Seaport stuck with its sell call on Nvidia $NVDA and a $180 target, below Thursday’s $212 close. The firm worries builders will run short of electricians, gas turbines and power.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 0.44% )  
is funding its build-out with about $20 billion each from stock sales, customer prepayments and debt. Goldman Sachs still rates it a buy, with a $206 target against Thursday’s $125.54 close.

Other notable company news

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 1.86% )  
told JPMorgan it isn’t planning to sell new stock to pay for AI. It pointed to debt instead.

SK Hynix $SKHY ( ▲ 3.78% )  
shelved a U.S. IPO for Solidigm, its flash memory unit. Its own U.S. shares still trade below their $149 July debut price.

Oklo $OKLO ( ▼ 2.41% )  
and NuScale Power $SMR hit 52-week lows, and uranium funds fell to their lowest since mid-2025.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 2.61% )  
executives sold more than $30 million in stock in September and October, filings show. The sales were scheduled back in June, when shares traded near $50.

Deckers $DECK ( ▼ 5.61% )  
reported $1.43 billion in sales, short of the $1.51 billion expected, as HOKA and UGG both missed.

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Sector Watch

Bond market

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up but stayed just under 5% . SpaceX and Oracle bonds kept losing value, and both now trade like junk debt despite investment-grade ratings.

Policy watch

Fed

Americans are still gloomy, and a little more worried about prices.

• The University of Michigan's sentiment index came in at 48, about the same as September and near historic lows.

• People expect 4.7 percent inflation over the next year, up a touch from September.

International

Iran warned it would hit civilian targets in neighboring countries if the U.S. and Israel restart their air campaign.

• Trump said the choice is whether to "finish it off" or "let it wither."

• He also hinted that more strikes could come after the Nov. 3 midterms.

• UN Ambassador Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the war could last another year.

What to Watch

Western Digital Earnings

The hard drive maker reports tonight, after a rough day for memory and chip stocks. If it says data center orders are still growing, that cuts against today’s worries.

Anthropic’s IPO Filing

Anthropic could file its IPO paperwork as soon as Friday. The filing would show what a top AI lab earns and spends, the same math that hit tech today.

American Express and the Shopper

American Express reports Friday, the same day the University of Michigan releases its consumer survey. Nestlé’s CEO said today that U.S. shoppers are stretched by the end of the month. Amex will show whether its cardholders feel the same squeeze.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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