October 23rd Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Markets clawed back yesterday's losses, with tech leading the way up. Trump confirmed he'll meet with Xi next week in South Korea, and volume immediately started to price in a deal that hasn't happened yet. I think we're getting ahead of ourselves here, but hope is a powerful thing.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Trump-Xi Meeting Confirmed
Trump will meet with Xi Jinping next Thursday in South Korea. First meeting in over a year. Markets rallied on the news even though nothing has actually changed yet. Hope is doing the heavy lifting here.

Russia Oil Sanctions Hit Supply 
Trump sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil producers. India and China buy most of Russia's crude, so this creates real supply risk. Oil prices moved sharply higher. The EU also announced it will ban Russian LNG imports starting next year.

Super Micro Slashes Forecast on Order Delays
Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 0.79% ) cut its revenue outlook after customers delayed orders. First major crack in the AI infrastructure story everyone's been betting on. If other AI hardware companies start reporting delays, the whole narrative shifts.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.36% ) 
reported mixed third-quarter results. Revenue beat but earnings missed. The stock shrugged it off and closed higher anyway.

Rigetti Computing $RGTI ( ▼ 1.3% ) 
and other quantum stocks went wild on reports Trump might take equity stakes in quantum firms. A Commerce Department official later denied they're negotiating with anyone. Pure rumor trading.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 1.26% ) 
dropped after quarterly profit came in below expectations. Advertising revenue picked up but not enough to save the quarter. Shares continued lower today.

Big Name Updates

General Motors $GM ( ▲ 3.99% ) 
hit an all-time high for the first time since its November 2010 IPO. Took 15 years but the EV push is finally showing up in the stock price.

Honeywell $HON ( ▼ 2.0% ) 
beat third-quarter expectations and raised full-year guidance. Industrial demand holding up better than expected.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▲ 7.79% ) 
raised its profit outlook above Wall Street estimates. The company is betting on premium services like gourmet coffee and champagne. The stock moved higher.

Other Notable Company News

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 2.28% ) 
signed a $200 million deal with Lumen for AI network modernization software. That's real revenue in a software market full of pilot programs.

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 0.58% ) and Ford $F ( ▲ 12.76% ) report earnings after the close today. Both are in the middle of turnarounds that markets are losing patience with.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4% on Thursday. Oil prices jumping and the China meeting news both pushed yields higher. Friday's delayed September inflation report is the last piece of data before the Fed meets next week.

Policy Watch

Fed
Markets are pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting. Friday's inflation number will either confirm that or kill it. Expectations are for 3.1% annual inflation. Anything higher puts the cut in doubt.

Fiscal & Trade

• Trump-Xi meeting set for next Thursday in South Korea

• The administration is weighing export controls on China for products made with U.S. software

• Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who pleaded guilty to money laundering charges

International

• U.S. sanctioned Russia's two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil

• EU will ban Russian LNG imports starting next year

• If India and China comply, global oil supply tightens significantly

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What To Watch

September CPI Report - Friday Morning 
This inflation data is nearly a month late because of the government shutdown. The Fed meets next week and this is their last look at price pressures before deciding on rates. Consensus expects annual inflation at 3.1%. Anything higher reintroduces rate hike risk.

Intel and Ford Earnings - Tonight 
ntel $INTC ( ▲ 0.58% ) and Ford $F ( ▲ 12.76% ) report after the close Thursday. Both companies are in the middle of major turnarounds. Intel is trying to reclaim chip manufacturing leadership while Ford pushes into EVs. These reports matter for broader industrial and tech sentiment.

Trump-Xi Meeting Next Week
The meeting is confirmed for next Thursday in South Korea. Markets will parse every detail looking for signs of real progress on trade. The risk is that traders have already priced in too much optimism before anything substantive is announced.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John