October 21st Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

Dow hit a record, gold had its worst day since 2013. Old economy won today, industrials like GM and 3M ripped on strong earnings while tech sold off on China uncertainty.

Volume rotated out of high-growth tech into traditional manufacturers, choosing hard assets and earnings now over growth promises later.

Markets can’t decide if we’re heading into risk-on or risk-off, so they’re doing both. I’m watching Trump’s China comments closely.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Gold's Sudden Reversal

Gold had its worst day since 2013, just one day after hitting a record high. The U.S. and Australia signed a rare earths trade deal, which investors read as less tension with China. Less fear means less gold.

Dow Hits Record While Tech Stumbles

The Dow closed at a new record while the Nasdaq fell. Industrial and consumer names posted strong earnings and drove the Dow higher. Tech sold off after Trump said his meeting with Xi next week "maybe won't happen."

Corporate Earnings Beat Expectations

General Motors $GM posted its best day in more than five years, heading for a record close after crushing quarterly numbers. So far, 86% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates this quarter. Nearly one-fifth of S&P companies report this week.

Market Overview

Big 3 Market Cap

Stock Spotlight

General Motors $GM ( ▲ 14.76% ) 
had its best day in more than five years. The automaker posted strong results and raised its full-year guidance.

Six Flags $FUN ( ▲ 19.43% ) 
jumped after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist Jana Partners teamed up with football player Travis Kelce to take a stake.

Newmont $NEM ( ▼ 9.1% ) 
and Royal Gold $RGLD crushed along with gold's worst day since 2013.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.2% ) 
closed at its first record high of the year Monday and kept climbing. The company's market value is now approaching four trillion dollars.

Coca-Cola $KO ( ▲ 3.91% ) 
shares rose. Higher prices pushed its quarterly sales and earnings above estimates.

Philip Morris International $PM ( ▼ 4.42% ) 
stock sank. Investors were disappointed with the tobacco company's results, even though it raised annual guidance.

GE Aerospace $GE ( ▲ 1.4% ) 
kept climbing. The jet-engine company raised its full-year outlook after posting higher quarterly sales and profit.

Other Notable Company News

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 11.38% ) 
is reviewing strategic alternatives after being approached about potential deals. (more buyouts)?

RTX $RTX ( ▲ 7.71% ) 
raised its annual forecast on high demand for munitions and missiles.

Zions Bancorp $ZION ( ▲ 1.17% ) 
reported higher quarterly earnings after disclosing a charge-off last week.

Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF ( ▼ 16.84% ) 
fell after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock, calling the prior day's rally an overreaction.

Beyond Meat $BYND ( ▲ 147.96% ) 
kept rallying after being added to a meme stock ETF and announcing a Walmart distribution deal.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields slipped again. The benchmark 10-year yield closed at its lowest level since October of last year. The bond market is betting on Fed rate cuts despite the government data blackout. I'm watching Friday's inflation report closely.

Policy Watch

Government Shutdown

The shutdown has cut off fresh economic data. The delayed consumer-price index for September comes out Friday. Some on Wall Street question whether the data will be reliable after the shutdown.

Fiscal & Trade

The U.S. and Australia signed a rare-earths trade agreement to counter China's dominance in the sector. Separately, the USDA will support new beef processing plants to bring production back onshore and lower prices.

International

Three Republican lawmakers joined Democrats in opposing Trump's proposed $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visa applicants. They say the fee is too expensive for small companies.

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What To Watch

Big Tech Earnings

Netflix $NFLX ( ▲ 0.35% ) reports after the close today, and Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 0.33% ) on Wednesday. With tech valuations elevated, these results could set the tone for the rest of the year.

Inflation Data

The delayed Consumer Price Index for September comes out Friday. The reading will factor into the Fed's next decision on rates.

U.S.-China Relations

Trump's comment that his meeting with Xi "maybe won't happen" hit tech stocks today. Watch for any updates on trade talks or tariffs.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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