October 1st Market Overview

Happy Thursday

We gapped up then slid at open. October opened with a little scare. Bond yields hit fresh highs this morning, and stocks sold off right along with them. By midday yields cooled off and stocks climbed back.

Right now the bond market is running the show, and today it cut us some slack.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Treasurys Went From Selloff to Safe Haven 
   
   The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34 this morning, its highest since April 2002, then eased to about 5.24. Investors dumped French, Italian and Greek bonds and moved into US and German debt instead. For all the worry about US debt, Treasurys are still where money goes when Europe gets shaky.
   

2. Oil Is Back Over $100 
   
   Brent crude topped $102 as Chinese refiners halted October fuel exports and a third US aircraft carrier headed to the Middle East. Actual barrels are tighter still: oil for physical delivery settled around $121 on Wednesday. Factories are paying up too, with the ISM prices-paid index at 77.9 versus the 72 economists expected.
   

3. AI Led the Comeback 
   
   A Bloomberg report that Anthropic could go public as soon as mid-November gave tech a midday lift. Accenture $ACN rallied after saying AI is driving more work from big clients like FedEx and BP. Revenue of $18.7 billion came in above its own guidance range. That's AI spending turning into paid client work, which is exactly what this trade needs to see.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock spotlight

Micron $MU ( ▲ 3.0% )  
recovered from an early dip after its CEO defended a record pay bump for employees. The raise left its margin outlook a bit under estimates, but it guided revenue to about $61.5 billion versus the $57 billion expected.

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▲ 2.85% )  
should benefit from Micron's report, according to Citi. The bank kept its Buy rating and $2,100 target, pointing to tight supply and rising prices for flash storage chips.

Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▲ 11.97% )  
rallied after housing regulator Bill Pulte said he's making sure its new FICO Direct program gets approved. The stock had been under pressure since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began accepting a rival credit score.

Big name updates

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▼ 9.34% )  
fell even as a federal judge cleared the way for its $81 billion Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 2.52% )  
slid with the rest of media on the news. Separately, co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company "isn't growing as fast as I want us to."

Citigroup $C ( ▼ 1.88% )  
led big banks lower as rising interest rates kept the pressure on. An index of the biggest US banks is back to its late-May level.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 0.58% )  
got downgraded to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo. The bank kept its $182 target but sees more upside in rival BP.

UPS $UPS ( ▲ 0.46% )  
gets a buy-the-dip call from Goldman Sachs, which kept its $132 target. At 12 times earnings it's cheaper than FedEx at 15, and UPS has finished cutting back its Amazon volume.

Other notable company news

Corteva $CTVA ( ▼ 83.83% )  
didn't crash: the drop reflects its split into two companies, and it's skewing the materials sector today.

McCormick $MKC ( ▼ 4.64% )  
beat on earnings and revenue but traded lower with Unilever, which is buying it.

McKesson $MCK ( ▲ 5.51% )  
rose after reaffirming its full-year outlook and extending its drug distribution deal with CVS Health through June 2032.

Occidental Petroleum $OXY ( ▲ 4.39% )  
got upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs, which raised its target to $69 from $63.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 1.35% )  
signed the biggest commercial launch deal in its history: 20 Electron launches for Tokyo-based Synspective.

Today’s Sponsor

Invest in High-Potential Startups Like These

Alumni Ventures is giving readers early access to high-potential startup opportunities across today’s most active sectors, co-invested alongside name-brand VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bessemer, & Y Combinator.

You get:

• Curated deal flow of high-potential startups

• Invest alongside elite lead venture firms

• No cost to see deals

• No obligation to invest

See Current Startup Deals →

Sector Watch

Bond market

Bonds just finished their worst quarter in decades, and homebuyers are feeling it. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit its highest level since November 2023 on Wednesday.

Policy watch

Fed

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday the next rate decision "may take more time." That echoes New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday, and both sit in Chair Kevin Warsh's inner circle. So read this as the Fed's leadership talking. The 2-year yield, the one most tied to Fed moves, fell the most of any Treasury today.

President Trump also went after the Fed in a Time interview published Thursday:

• He said "certain levels of inflation" could help pay down the national debt "very rapidly." That's a sore spot for bond investors, since inflation shrinks the real value of what they're owed.
  

• He accused Fed officials of "Trump derangement syndrome" over last month's hike, while sparing Warsh.
  

• He singled out Governor Lisa Cook, whom he's trying to remove.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

Nike's Turnaround Test

Nike $NKE reports after the bell with the stock at its lowest level since 2014. Watch whether the turnaround is finally showing up in the numbers.

Iran After the Midterms

Trump has said he expects the Iran war to wrap up shortly after November's midterms. He's also floated a major new bombing campaign after the elections. Oil and long-term yields will trade on which path he picks.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

The best in influencer marketing. And you’re invited.

Get ready for Return on Influence Festival '26. An entire day dedicated to influencer marketing with speakers running some of the best programs in the world. October 21, 2026, 10 am - 5 pm ET.

Save your spot now