November 6th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning.

The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose about 70% Yesterday. A one-day move that big has only happened eight times since 1991.

The S&P 500 was higher six months later all eight times. Some fun stats to lighten the mood.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Jobs Report Puts A December Hike Back On The Table
Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 expected, and pay rose faster than forecast. That erases this week’s hope that a slower AI buildout would keep the Fed from hiking. Goldman says the report clears the way for a Dec. 9 hike. Tuesday’s inflation report is the last big test before then.

2. Forced Selling Made Thursday Worse
Leveraged funds that double or triple tech’s daily moves sold over $60 billion of stock this week, per JPMorgan. Those funds have to sell when prices fall, which deepened Thursday’s drop. Retail investors kept buying them anyway, and UBS says trend-following computer funds still have selling to do. Until that borrowed money clears out, today’s bounce can reverse fast.

3. AI Labs Are Finding Money Harder To Raise
Investors in Anthropic’s IPO say its $1.5 trillion price tag likely has to drop, possibly toward $1 trillion. OpenAI raised under half of its $30 billion goal, and backer SoftBank is down more than half since June. Anthropic alone has about $895 billion committed to computing power, so less funding means fewer chip and cloud orders.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

DraftKings $DKNG ( ▼ 26.45% )  
The sportsbook is down big after cutting its 2026 outlook to spend up to $700 million on prediction markets. Quarterly revenue of $1.33 billion also missed the $1.40 billion expected.

Airbnb $ABNB ( ▼ 3.54% )  
The home rental platform is rising after posting its fastest revenue growth in over three years and raising its outlook. Third quarter profit of $3.16 a share beat the $2.85 analysts expected.

Cloudflare $NET ( ▼ 8.28% )  
The web security company is rising after forecasting this quarter’s sales well above Wall Street’s estimate. It sees up to $846 million in revenue against $796 million expected, with profit guidance above estimates too.

Iren $IREN ( ▲ 21.69% )  
The AI cloud provider is up sharply after revenue climbed to $228 million from $137 million last quarter. Buyers are looking past more than $4 billion in expected revenue that slipped to at least January 2027.

Atlassian $TEAM ( ▼ 3.47% )  
The workplace software company is getting hit after forecasting slower subscription growth for the fiscal year ending next June. That outweighed a quarter that beat estimates, with revenue of $1.77 billion versus $1.71 billion expected.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 6.55% )  
The vaccine maker is higher after posting its first profit in two years, driven by overseas COVID vaccine sales. It earned 38 cents a share when analysts expected a $1.25 loss, and raised its full year sales forecast.

What to Watch

Weekend Iran Risk
Rapidan Energy puts 8 in 10 odds on the U.S. resuming military action against Iran in the coming days. It expects that would push oil back above $100 a barrel. Bank of America says rates tend to rise with oil, so a strike feeds Monday’s Fed debate.

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