November 3rd Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning.

Tech took another hit yesterday while the Dow squeaked in a green finish. We all know today is mostly a wait for tonight’s results, so I’m not reading much into the open

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Apple Is About To Lose The Top Spot To Nvidia

Apple is falling premarket on a weaker holiday margin forecast, even though it expects sales to beat estimates. CEO John Ternus blames memory chip prices, driven up by AI data centers, and says they’ll keep climbing after December. If the drop holds, Nvidia , up premarket, passes Apple as the world’s most valuable company. Apple skipped the AI spending race, and it’s paying for that race anyway through its parts bill.

2. Oil Is Falling Even After A U.S. Strike On Iran

U.S. crude is back near $95 and down for a second day, even though the U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on last night. Oil turned lower after Trump said the U.S. will stop paying $4 billion in military aid to Israel by year-end, and on rumors of progress toward a deal with Iran. Saudi Aramco also says it will pump as much oil as it can this quarter. ING says it’s too early to call the danger over, with Gulf nations reportedly told to prepare for a short, intense U.S. operation after the election.

3. The Midterm Rally Usually Starts From A Selloff

Prediction markets have Democrats as heavy favorites to take the House and better than three-in-four to win the Senate. Most of Wall Street expects the usual post-midterm rally. BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky points out that rally usually comes after stocks slide into the vote. This year the S&P 500 is up double digits heading in, and he thinks a decline is more likely.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Shopify $SHOP ( ▼ 0.81% )  
sharply lower premarket after goods sold through the e commerce platform fell short of estimates. Merchants sold $119 billion through Shopify against $120 billion expected, and subscription revenue also missed, even though profit beat.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 3.13% )  
lower premarket even though the data and AI software company beat estimates and raised its full year outlook. Revenue nearly doubled, but new deals signed fell to $2.9 billion from $3.4 billion, raising doubts it can grow into a value above $400 billion.

Marathon Petroleum $MPC ( ▼ 3.22% )  
higher premarket after beating estimates and agreeing to sell two Midwest refineries for $4.2 billion to Carl Icahn-controlled CVR Energy $CVI ( ▼ 4.2% ) , which is also rising. The largest U.S. refiner made $45.70 a barrel in refining margin, up from $17.60 a year ago, as the Iran war tightened fuel supplies.

Revvity $RVTY ( ▼ 3.44% )  
higher premarket after the life sciences company beat estimates and raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast to $5.40 to $5.45 a share, from $5.30 to $5.40. Its life sciences unit grew fastest, and the CEO says customer demand keeps improving.

Zebra Technologies $ZBRA ( ▼ 0.04% )  
lower premarket even though the maker of barcode scanners and mobile computers beat estimates. It expects at least $1 billion in free cash, the money left after running and investing in the business, just shy of the $1.02 billion analysts wanted.

What to Watch

Election Results (Tonight)

If Democrats win either chamber, Evercore ISI expects a push to cap credit card interest rates. Trump called for a cap himself earlier this year, so a deal between the two sides would hit card lenders. A sweep could also pressure defense stocks, while health care has already rallied partly on hopes Democrats take over.

AMD Earnings (After The Bell)

Pricier memory is softening the PC market, and that drove the weak forecast that sank Intel on Friday. AMD sells PC chips too, so tonight shows whether its data center sales can carry a softer PC business. Chips are bouncing premarket, but Monday opened the same way and the main chip index closed below its late-July low.

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