November 2nd Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning, and so long, October.

It was the Nasdaq’s worst month since March 2025, and I’m not going to miss it. Opening is green with oil sliding, and Barclays’ research chief says it’s “time to tiptoe back in.” That’s exactly how this market feels to me, with Apple tonight and an election tomorrow.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Falls as Iran's Supreme Leader Clears the Way for Talks

Oil fell further after Iran's president said the supreme leader authorized his government to negotiate. An Axios source says talks have progressed and mediators are working to close the remaining gaps. U.S. crude is near $97 and Brent near $106, still close to this year's highs. Rubio says Trump still hasn't decided on new strikes, which reports had lined up for after Tuesday's election.

2. The AI Bounce Runs Into a $10 Billion Stock Sale

Oracle $ORCL is selling $10 billion in new stock, and its shares are down premarket. OpenAI's latest funding round also came up short of its $30 billion target. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft spent $26.4 billion more cash than they brought in last quarter. Chip stocks run on that spending, and the spending now leans on outside money.

3. Marvell's $115 Billion Deal Has Already Shrunk

Marvell Technology $MRVL is buying Lumentum $LITE, which makes lasers that link AI chips, for 4.5 Marvell shares apiece. The $115 billion figure uses Marvell's pre-leak price of about $252, and the stock is near $191 this morning. That makes each Lumentum share worth about $860, below the $914 it traded at before the leak. Lumentum holders lose $4.50 a share for every $1 Marvell falls until the deal closes in 2028.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Estée Lauder $EL ( ▲ 0.41% )  
higher premarket after earning an adjusted 72 cents a share against 51 cents expected, on revenue of $3.72 billion. The beauty company behind La Mer and MAC also raised its full-year profit outlook.

Fox $FOX ( ▲ 1.99% )  
higher premarket after the World Cup and record political ads helped ad revenue rise by nearly half last quarter. Political ad revenue hit a record $350 million across Fox's networks this election cycle.

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▼ 4.11% )  
higher premarket after Deutsche Bank upgraded it to buy from hold and raised its target to $300 from $240. Analyst Brad Zelnick says the market underrates AI-driven security demand, and Palo Alto Networks $PANW is up in sympathy.

Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 6.2% )  
higher premarket after UBS upgraded the EV maker to buy from neutral with a $17 price target. Analyst Joseph Spak says the stock's recent selloff came just before R2 midsize SUV production picks up.

Okta $OKTA ( ▼ 6.14% )  
higher premarket after S&P said the identity security company will join the S&P 500 before Wednesday's open. It replaces Kenvue, which Kimberly-Clark is acquiring, so index funds will have to buy the stock.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 0.18% )  
higher premarket with the AI rebound ahead of its report after the bell. The data and AI software company has beaten profit estimates for at least four straight quarters.

What to Watch

Apple Earnings (After the Bell)

Apple has moved opposite the AI trade lately, and it's the world's most valuable company again. Wall Street expects $2 a share on $113.46 billion in revenue in new CEO John Ternus's first call. If he sounds soft on early iPhone Duo demand, big tech runs out of places to hide.

Midterm Elections (Tomorrow)

Democrats are expected to take the House, and control of the Senate is still up in the air. Investors see a Democratic sweep as bad news for AI stocks, since data centers are unpopular with voters. In a CNBC survey, more than six in ten voters opposed having one within 10 miles of home.

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