November 26th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday (and happy Thanksgiving)

Fat rally heading into Thanksgiving. Retail is on fire, Kohl's memeing up over 50% this week right before Black Friday. Consumers are definitely still spending.

Golds back at $4,200. Near highs while stocks are rallying. Make of that what you will, but to me it’s the obvious…investors are hedging the dollar any way they can.

Job market data came in. Companies aren't firing anyone, but they're not hiring either. The job market is stuck in limbo.

I hope you get to eat some great food with some great people this holiday.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Retail Sector Surging Into Black Friday

Kohl's $KSS up over 50% this week after earnings beat. Urban Outfitters $URBN posted $1.28 EPS on $1.53 billion revenue versus $1.20 expected. Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF jumped over 30%. The retail ETF $XRT up nearly 6% week to date, biggest weekly gain since May. Burlington Stores $BURL dropped on weak comps. Money flowing into retailers with momentum heading into Black Friday.

2. Gold Crosses $4,200 as Dollar Trust Erodes

Gold hit $4,200 with September ETF inflows at $33 billion. Ken Griffin said investors now view gold as the safe harbor the dollar used to be. Silver near its 1980 high. When gold and stocks both rally, it's a currency trust problem.

3. Labor Market Stuck in Neutral

Initial claims at 216,000, the lowest since April 12. Continued claims at 1.96 million….near four-year high. Companies hoarding workers but not hiring. No layoffs, no hiring. In theory this supports Fed cuts while signaling stagnation.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Dell Technologies $DELL ( ▲ 0.07% ) 
raised full-year guidance. Fourth-quarter sales expected at $31.5 billion versus $27.59 billion consensus. AI server shipments will more than double.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 1.47% ) 
climbed after Deutsche Bank reiterated its $375 price target. OpenAI backlog validates the thesis. Recent pullback created an entry point.

Urban Outfitters $URBN ( ▼ 4.5% ) 
beat with $1.28 EPS on $1.53 billion revenue. All three brands gained. Subscription revenue jumped 49%. Gross margin expanded despite tariff headwinds.

HP Inc. $HPQ ( ▲ 1.84% ) 
guided fiscal 2026 earnings below Street. Cutting 4,000 to 6,000 jobs to fund $1 billion in cost saves by fiscal 2028.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 1.81% ) 
recovered ground. Foxconn got approval for $569 million Wisconsin expansion for AI servers. Chinese regulators blocked ByteDance from using Nvidia chips.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.07% ) 
dipped despite Meta talking TPU chip deal for 2027.

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 1.36% ) 
got Goldman price target lift to $435 from $380 ahead of December 11 earnings.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 0.23% ) 
best S&P 500 performer. Buying 90% of LedgerX for a regulated event contracts venue. Prediction markets fastest-growing line.

Other Notable Company News

Kohl's $KSS ( ▲ 2.03% ) 
extended gains after naming Michael Bender permanent CEO.

Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF ( ▲ 2.87% ) 
up on quarterly beat.

Li Auto $LI ( ▼ 0.22% ) 
first quarterly loss in three years. Chinese EV price war crushing margins.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 1.31% ) 
filed for higher dose Wegovy approval.

Boeing $BA ( ▲ 1.11% ) 
won $7.2 billion defense contracts including $4.69 billion Apache deal for Poland, Egypt and Kuwait through 2032.

Uber $UBER ( ▲ 2.2% ) 
launched driverless rides with WeRide in Abu Dhabi. Expanding to Dubai.

Spotify $SPOT ( ▲ 1.04% ) 
raising US prices Q1 2026. JPMorgan estimates $1 increase adds $500 million annual revenue.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield held near 4.00% after jobless claims data. Dollar weakened to 97.02 on the Dollar Index as Kevin Hassett emerged as Fed chair frontrunner.

Shutdown-delayed durable goods orders for September rose 0.5%, driven by a 31% jump in defense aircraft. Data is two months old. Markets flying blind on recent manufacturing trends.

Markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Bonds close early Friday at 2 p.m.

Policy Watch

Fed Decision

Traders pricing in over 80% odds of a December quarter-point cut per CME FedWatch. Tuesday's weak data plus Wednesday's labor numbers locked it in. Low layoffs but zero hiring momentum makes the case.

Fed Chair Race

Kevin Hassett frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell in May per Bloomberg. Hassett directs the National Economic Council. Polymarket has him at 53% versus Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 23%. Hassett is the most dovish candidate. Expect aggressive rate cuts if he gets the job.

UK Budget

Britain announced £26 billion in tax hikes Wednesday targeting higher earners: frozen income-tax thresholds, mansion tax, higher investment taxes, pension caps. UK assets rallied. Pound gained. Ten-year gilt yields dropped.

Healthcare Subsidies

White House denied two-year Obamacare subsidy extension. Trump will roll out broader healthcare policy soon. If enhanced premium tax credits expire end of 2025, insurers take a hit. Piper Sandler upgraded Oscar Health $OSCR to overweight, saying the company can grow even if subsidies expire.

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What to Watch

Black Friday Consumer Test

Markets close Friday at 1 p.m. Adobe forecasts $43.7 billion in Cyber Week sales. Watch traffic versus ticket size is volume up or just prices? Walmart $WMT and Best Buy $BBY showed selective spending. J.B. Hunt $JBHT trucking data and NRF port forecasts suggest retailers cautious on restocking. This tests if the retail rally has legs.

Fed Meeting December 18

Over 80% odds of a cut priced in. Three weeks away. Any hot data between now and then kills the party.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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