November 21st Market Overview

Happy Friday

Markets bounced after Williams floated a December rate cut. Bitcoin's falling apart below $85k while stocks rally… is money leaving the casino?

I'm not convinced this is the “bounce”, but at least we're not bleeding into the weekend before Thanksgiving.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Fed's Williams Saves the Market 
New York Fed President John Williams said there's room for another rate cut "in the near term." Rate cut odds jumped from 39% to over 70% in minutes. Markets rallied hundreds of points. Williams threw cold water on the hawks who triggered Thursday's selloff.

Tech Bounces on China Chip News 
Bloomberg reported Trump's team is considering letting Nvidia sell H200 chips to China. The stock turned positive on the news after yesterday's post-earnings drop. Markets rallied today but the damage from this week is real - Nasdaq still down 2% for the week. Tech valuations now hinge more on Washington decisions than earnings beats.

Consumer Sentiment Hits Near-Record Low 
University of Michigan survey dropped to 51, one of the lowest readings in the poll's history. Consumers are frustrated by high prices and weakening incomes. This matters because consumer spending is 70% of GDP and the Fed needs demand to cool. Instead, people are just getting squeezed.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 1.57% ) 
became the first pharma to hit $1 trillion market cap. Weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound are driving the move.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.97% ) 
recovered after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is considering allowing H200 chip exports to China. It's a weaker chip than the Blackwell that was rejected, but still an upgrade from the H20 China dismissed.

Intuit $INTU ( ▲ 4.03% ) 
beat on AI demand from mid-size businesses. Revenue came in at $3.89 billion versus $3.76 billion expected.

Gap $GAP ( ▲ 8.24% ) 
raised annual guidance after all three brands posted sales growth. The "Better in Denim" campaign with Katseye drove traffic without heavy discounting.

Big Name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 3.53% ) 
is the only Magnificent Seven stock in the green this week. Its new Gemini 3 AI model is getting traction.

MicroStrategy $MSTR ( ▼ 3.74% ) 
faces potential removal from MSCI indexes. The provider may cut companies where crypto makes up a majority of assets. JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in passive outflows. Saylor says he won't change course.

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 1.27% ) 
rallied after receiving nonbinding bids from Comcast, Netflix and Paramount. Only Paramount wants the whole company including cable channels.

Other Notable Company News

Veeva Systems $VEEV ( ▼ 9.77% ) 
raised annual outlook for a third straight quarter with double-digit revenue growth, but shares dropped despite the beat.

BJ's Wholesale Club $BJ ( ▲ 1.13% ) 
sales missed as the government shutdown and SNAP benefit pause caused disruption.

Deere & Co. $DE ( ▲ 2.29% ) 
reports Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 0.23% ) 
, Analog Devices $ADI and Best Buy $BBY report Tuesday morning.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.067% as stocks rallied. Dollar was flat.

September PPI comes Tuesday.

Policy Watch

Fed

John Williams said monetary policy is "modestly restrictive" and sees room for a cut "in the near term." Rate cut odds jumped from 39% to over 70%.

Missing Data

The government shutdown killed October's economic data collection. No CPI. No jobs report. No unemployment rate.

Here's the problem: The Fed meets December 17-18 to decide on rates. They'll have September data (which is now stale) and November data (which drops December 16-18, literally as they're meeting). October is a complete black hole.

The Fed is making a rate decision with a full month of inflation and employment data missing. They're flying blind through one of the most volatile periods of the year. September PPI on Tuesday just became the most important data point they have.

Trade

Trump removed 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef, coffee, fruits and nuts.

Ukraine

Trump wants Ukraine's answer on his peace plan by Thursday. Zelensky says it's "a very difficult choice" - the 28-point plan makes major concessions to Russia. Oil fell on potential de-escalation.

International

• G-20 summit this weekend in Johannesburg

• Japan approved $135 billion stimulus package

• UK delivers Autumn Budget Wednesday

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What to Watch

September PPI Tuesday 
The Fed's last inflation data point before deciding on December 18 rates. Producer prices lead consumer prices.

AI Spending Returns
Clients are asking if the AI capex boom pays off. Hyperscalers keep announcing bigger spending while their stocks fall. That gap matters.

Bitcoin at $80,000 
Leveraged longs getting liquidated. Year-end tax loss selling ahead.

Black Friday 
Markets close early Friday at 1pm. Holiday shopping data starts flowing.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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