November 20th Market Overview

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Happy Thursday

Reality check today about how money really feels about the current market, today was dramatic simply put and I’m listening.

When the most important company in tech posts a blowout quarter and the market still can't hold a rally, that's telling you something about sentiment right now. Positioning and fear are stronger than fundamentals.

I think we're in one of those windows where nothing good is good enough. Rate cut odds collapsed after the delayed September jobs report, and now Powell has to decide in December without seeing October data at all. The technical damage from today's reversal…momentum strategies unwinding, volatility hedges triggering that stuff takes time to repair.

Today put me in full defense mode.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Nvidia Posted Perfect Earnings and Got Sold Anyway Nvidia 

$NVDA reported $57 billion in revenue and strong guidance. CEO Jensen Huang said Blackwell demand is "off the charts" and dismissed bubble concerns. Stock opened higher then reversed to close lower. When the best company in tech reports a blowout and still gets sold, that's a problem. The Dow swung 1,116 points today.

Powell Decides on Rates Without October Data 

September jobs showed 119,000 added versus 50,000 expected. But unemployment hit 4.4%, a four-year high. October report won't be published due to the shutdown. November data arrives December 16 - after the Fed meets December 9. Powell's stuck making a critical decision with missing data and a confusing September report.

Consumer Split Accelerating in Real Time Walmart 

$WMT crushed earnings and raised guidance, gaining share with higher-income shoppers. Same day, Bath & Body Works $BBWI collapsed on terrible guidance - people just stopped buying. This tells you exactly which consumers still have money to spend and which don't.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 5.66% ) 
and Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 1.09% ) 
both reversed lower despite the Nvidia beat. The AI selloff wasn't just profit-taking on one name - it was sector-wide fear overriding fundamentals.

Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▼ 1.17% ) 
beat earnings but dropped after announcing a $3.35 billion acquisition of Chronosphere. Investors didn't like the price tag despite raised guidance.

Exact Sciences $EXAS ( ▲ 0.23% ) 
jumped after Abbott Laboratories $ABT agreed to buy the cancer-screening company for $21 billion in cash.

Verizon $VZ ( ▲ 1.15% ) 
is cutting over 13,000 jobs and shifting 179 stores to franchises. CEO said current cost structure limits their ability to invest in customer value.

Big Name Updates

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 3.74% ) 
and BitMine crypto treasury stocks getting crushed as Bitcoin fell below $87,000. When highly levered vehicles sell off this hard, it signals forced liquidations.

SK Hynix plans to ramp 1c DRAM production roughly 8x in 2026 as AI demand shifts from pure training to large-scale inferencing. That's massive supply hitting the market. $MU ( ▲ 2.98% ) dumped in response.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▲ 6.08% ) 
targeting 10% revenue growth in 2026 and expanding seasonal vaccine lineup from 3 to 6 products by 2028. Secured $1.5 billion term loan from Ares.

Other Notable Company News

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▲ 1.32% ) 
signed a deal with Verizon to provide space-based cellular service starting in 2026. Voice and video tests already successful.

Cipher Mining $CIFR ( ▼ 2.82% ) 
signed a 56MW, 10-year AI hosting deal with Fluidstack worth $830 million, potentially reaching $2 billion with extensions.

GE Appliances $GE ( ▼ 1.09% ) 
awarded $150 million in contracts to 22 American suppliers as it moves manufacturing from China to the U.S.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield slipped to around 4.1% despite the better-than-expected jobs number. Traders are reducing December rate cut bets. The dollar hit its highest level since August, which pressures multinational earnings. T

Policy Watch

Fed Decision

The September jobs report solved nothing. Hawks can point to 119,000 jobs added beating expectations. Doves can point to unemployment hitting 4.4% and downward revisions to prior months. JP Morgan's Michael Feroli said the mixed messages are "tailor-made to prompt vigorous debate at the next FOMC meeting." The problem: October data won't exist, and November data arrives December 16, a week after the Fed decides.

Jobs & Immigration

• Native-born employment rose 676,000 in September while foreign-born fell 70,000

• Year-over-year: native-born up 2.5 million, foreign-born down 1 million

• Manufacturing lost another 6,000 jobs, led by semiconductor and transportation equipment

Trade & Tech

The U.S. approved sales of up to 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia after Trump's talks with MbS. The deal covers up to 35,000 Nvidia GB300 servers each for G42 and Humain, with strict monitoring to prevent technology from reaching China. White House also pushing to keep the GAIN AI Act out of this year's defense bill, which would force chipmakers to prioritize U.S. orders before exports.

What to Watch

November Jobs Report Timing 
The Labor Department won't publish October employment data at all. November's report arrives December 16, seven days after the Fed's December 9 meeting. Powell will be making a critical rate decision with a massive blind spot in the data.

Walmart Joins Nasdaq-100 Walmart
$WMT moves its listing from NYSE to Nasdaq on December 9. This makes it eligible for the Nasdaq-100 index. With an $808 billion market cap, it would rank 10th on the current roster. Index funds will be forced buyers.

30-Year Treasury Auction Friday 
The $22 billion 30-year bond auction hits tomorrow after today's clean 10-year sale. This tests whether buyers will lock in long-term rates with Fed policy still murky.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John