November 13th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning.

Happy Friday the 13th. Nvidia’s premarket bounce didn’t survive the opening bell, and the stock is now down about a third from its October high. The odd part is the rest of the market is still on pace for its best week since early August. Money left Nvidia and went straight to its rivals this week, investors still believe in AI.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Started Lending Less Before Huang Left
Nvidia paused some deals to fund its own customers in August, the Wall Street Journal reports. Interim CEO Colette Kress also cut one OpenAI deal in half. So the pullback investors fear has already started. Lenders to CoreWeave look calm about it: they now ask about 14.75 percent interest on its debt, down from 16.7 percent last week.

2. A China Chip Ban Would Cost Nvidia Less Than It Sounds
Huang was the loudest voice for selling chips to China, and he’s gone. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this morning his team has wanted limits for months. But Kress has said Nvidia can’t make enough chips to meet demand through early 2028. Chips that can’t go to China would likely go to U.S. buyers like Alphabet Amazon and Meta

3. Inflation Cooled A Bit, And Rates Went Up Anyway
Wholesale prices, what producers charge before goods reach stores, rose less than expected in October. But the 10-year Treasury yield, which steers mortgage rates, still rose to about 5.16 percent. Prices are up more over the past year than at any time since November 2022. One bright spot: oil supply topped demand last month for the first time since the Iran war began.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Cerebras $CBRS ( ▲ 14.29% )  

is higher in the premarket after forecasting up to $330 million in fourth quarter sales, well above the $271 million expected. The Nvidia rival also signed two new big cloud customers, including one of the world’s three largest.

Modine Manufacturing $MOD ( ▲ 28.34% )  

is sharply higher after Bloomberg reported Samsung is in talks to buy the data center cooling maker. A deal could come within weeks, though Samsung said it couldn’t confirm the report.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.44% )  

is lower in the premarket as its Outlook and Teams outage drags into a second day. Microsoft says it’s restoring service in stages and warns users could still see on and off problems.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 7.05% )  

is lower after The Information reported Commerce is finalizing a rule to bar Chinese AI firms from advanced chips in overseas data centers. Renting those chips abroad is how Chinese companies like Alibaba get around U.S. export limits.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 6.49% )  

is falling as bitcoin drops below $70,000 for the first time since August. Rising odds of a Fed rate hike are pulling money out of riskier bets, and Strategy holds more bitcoin than any other public company.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 5.86% )  

is lower in the premarket as Nvidia bounces. Investors piled into Nvidia’s rivals this week after Huang’s exit, and some of that trade is reversing this morning.

What to Watch

Huang’s 8 PM Deadline Meets A One-Sided Crowd

Three House committees gave Huang until 8 PM tonight to agree to testify Dec. 1 or face a subpoena. Small investors bought Nvidia at a record pace at Thursday’s open, and funds betting against it drew nothing, per Vanda Research. A weekend subpoena headline would land on a crowd leaning almost entirely one way, days before Tuesday’s earnings.

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