November 12th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

The Dow made a new high today and the House votes to end the 43-day shutdown tonight. Banks loved it, tech hated it.

Tech sold, banks bought. That's what happens when money thinks the economy is stabilizing and AI is overvalued.

Confidence around the dollar is painting a broken picture and I’ll be sending a special newsletter tn on that around 7pm market time.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Banks Rip to Records While Tech Bleeds
Major banks hit all-time highs today. Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells, AmEx. The Financial Select SPDR Fund jumped over one percent. Tech went the other way with Oracle and Palantir down even as AMD spiked. Two economies, one market.

Shutdown Ending But October Data Lost….Forever?
The House votes tonight to end the 43-day shutdown. Here's the problem: White House say October's jobs and inflation reports will never be released. The Fed decides on rates December 10th with a giant hole in the data.

Silver Breaks $53 as Gold Crosses $4,200
Silver hit $53 for the first time, breaking a 45-year record. Gold back up at $4,200. Industrial buyers are competing with investors hedging against the dollar. Silver is up 78% percent this year.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Another Fun Chart For Us… (Precious Metals YTD)

Stock Spotlight

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 9.0% ) 
rose after CEO Lisa Su said data center revenue will grow over eighty percent annually through 2030. AMD projects double-digit AI chip market share in what it estimates will be a $1 trillion market. The company also announced $45 billion in custom chip design revenue starting next year.

Oklo $OKLO ( ▲ 6.55% ) 
loss widened as the nuclear startup works toward its first commercial plant in 2027.

On Holding $ONON ( ▲ 17.99% ) 
raised guidance for the third straight quarter. The Swiss shoemaker said demand is strong enough that it doesn't need Black Friday promotions. That's pricing power.

IBM $IBM ( ▲ 0.4% ) 
unveiled its most advanced quantum processor called Quantum Nighthawk. The company says it will reach verified quantum advantage by 2026.

Big Name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.58% ) 
is building Turkey's first hyperscale data center with Turkcell. The partnership includes three network clusters by 2029 with Turkcell investing $1 billion.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 2.95% ) 
got a Citi price target increase to $1,500. Citi lifted its FY26 oral GLP-1 sales forecast to $1.8 billion from $500 million, well above consensus.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.33% ) 
dropped after SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion stake to fund its OpenAI bet.

Other Notable Company News

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 0.42% ) 
killed its $2 billion stablecoin deal and announced it's leaving Delaware for Texas.

Circle $CRCL ( ▼ 12.21% ) 
beat estimates but shares dropped anyway.

BILL Holdings $BIL ( ▲ 0.02% ) 
L is exploring a sale after pressure from activist Starboard Value.

Clearwater Analytics $CWAN ( ▲ 7.55% ) 
is exploring a sale after getting takeover interest.

Bath & Body Works $BBWI ( ▲ 2.0% ) 
got downgraded on deeper discounting.

Tilray Brands $TLRY ( ▼ 4.65% ) 
and other cannabis stocks fell after the funding bill tightened hemp-derived THC rules.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields fell on shutdown resolution hopes. New York Fed President Williams said the central bank will soon restart bond purchases as pandemic liquidity drains out.

Treasury Secretary Bessent took a victory lap on this year's bond rally, noting six percent total returns, the best since 2020. Tomorrow: $22 billion 30-year auction.

Policy Watch

Government Shutdown

The House votes at 7pm tonight on the Senate bill. Flight cancellations dropped to the lowest rate in a week. The spending bill tightens hemp-derived THC rules, which is why cannabis stocks fell today.

The Fed

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is retiring in February. He was the first Black and openly gay regional Fed president.

Market pricing shows sixty-five percent odds of a rate cut December 9-10. Not a lock.

The Fed is split on December in a way we haven't seen under Powell. That's unusual.

Fiscal & Trade

Bessent told Fox News the administration will cut prices on coffee, bananas and other imported goods. Announcements coming in the next few days but he didn't say how. Coffee futures dropped on the news.

The Treasury struck its final penny today after 232 years. Existing pennies still work but they're done minting them.

International

• Trump asked Israeli President Herzog to consider pardoning Netanyahu from corruption charges.

• Taiwan's foreign minister said the government is weighing chip export controls as a diplomatic tool.

• Colombia's President ordered security forces to stop cooperating with U.S. agencies until missile attacks on Caribbean boats end.

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What To Watch

House Vote Tonight 
The shutdown vote happens around 7pm. Assuming it passes, delayed economic data starts flowing next week. September jobs report could drop as soon as Monday. I'll be watching to see what the backlog reveals about the economy.

The Fed's Blind Spot 
Without October's jobs and inflation data, the Fed's December 10th rate decision just got a lot harder. This is unprecedented. I'm watching for any official comments on how they plan to navigate this data blackout.

AMD's AI Push 
The company projects tens of billions in data center revenue by 2027 and sees the market growing to $1 trillion by 2030. If AMD delivers even half of what they're projecting, Nvidia's monopoly starts to crack.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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