November 11th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning.

Happy Wednesday, and thank you to every veteran reading this. The bond market has the day off, so stocks get to bounce without anyone checking their math. I’d feel a lot better about this bounce if small caps were coming along.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. CoreWeave Bought Itself About a Year

CoreWeave $CRWV says customers paying in advance, plus loans from its equipment suppliers, will cover most of its spending through next year. Its 2030 plan is almost five times today’s size and will need lenders again. The plan also leans on customers like OpenAI, which just raised less than half of the $30 billion it wanted.

2. Nvidia Is Priced for Far More Than a $5 Billion Problem

Baird downgraded Nvidia $NVDA this morning and estimated a possible $5 billion write-down on unsold chips meant for China. That’s about 1 percent of the $430 billion the stock lost in two days. The rest is fear about Jensen Huang’s future and tighter export rules, and earnings on Nov. 17 are the next real test.

3. Wall Street Now Expects More Than One Rate Hike

Goldman Sachs and UBS now expect another quarter-point hike in March, on top of December’s. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said AI spending is a demand boom the Fed should fight, not wait out. That means strong AI news, like CoreWeave’s this morning, now strengthens the case for higher rates.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Nebius $NBIS ( ▼ 5.27% )  
rents AI computing power out of its own data centers, the same business as CoreWeave. It’s up sharply after CoreWeave beat estimates and laid out how it will fund growth without selling new bonds.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 1.1% )  
makes memory chips for AI servers. It’s higher after CoreWeave’s results lifted its Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung overnight.

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▼ 0.14% )  
designs custom AI and networking chips for data centers. It’s leading chip stocks higher as CoreWeave’s results and Nvidia’s bounce ease fears of an AI spending pullback.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 1.3% )  
makes AI chips that compete with Nvidia’s. It’s higher after Goldman Sachs named it and Broadcom $AVGO top picks, saying chip stocks fell too far after a 21 percent drop in a month.

Talen Energy $TLN ( ▼ 0.54% )  
power producer, is up after agreeing to keep 750 megawatts available to one buyer for seven years. The deal brings in about $100 million a year through 2036, and the buyer has a strong credit rating.

NextNav $NN ( ▼ 5.83% )  
builds a ground-based backup for GPS. Shares are up after third-quarter revenue nearly doubled from a year ago and its loss shrank to 4 cents a share from 12 cents.

What to Watch

CoreWeave’s Bonds Get Their Vote Thursday
CoreWeave’s bonds don’t trade again until Thursday. Its most-traded bond, due 2032, yielded about 15 percent Tuesday, up from under 10 percent a few months ago. If that yield falls back toward 10 percent, lenders believe the plan; if it holds near 15, the stock is running ahead of them.

Fed’s Williams Speaks Thursday
John Williams of the New York Fed, who votes at every meeting, speaks Thursday with Beth Hammack and Michael Barr. If he sounds open to back-to-back hikes, January comes into play ahead of March. Friday’s wholesale price report is the next inflation check.

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