November 11th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

Money flowed out of tech for “cheaper” blue‑chips after weak AI headlines. CoreWeave cut guidance and SoftBank completely exited Nvidia, denting a little AI sentiment.

I think valuation is starting to slip back into people’s minds… nothing wrong with that.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Tech Rotation Bites AI Leaders
The Dow rose while the Nasdaq fell as some cash rotated out of tech. CoreWeave lowered near‑term guidance due to data center delays. High multiples met inconvenient headlines. I think the AI trade needed a reset and we got a small one last week.

Shutdown Bill Heads To The House
The Senate passed a bill to reopen the government through January. A House vote could come as soon as Wednesday. Reopening unlocks delayed data before the Dec. 9-10 Fed meeting.

Labor Signals Turn Softer
ADP’s four‑week tracker showed private employers shed jobs into Oct. 25. The dollar eased after the report. Investors are watching the timing of official payrolls once data resumes.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

The RealReal $REAL ( ▲ 37.65% ) 
raised full‑year revenue guidance after strong Q3 sales. Shoppers are trading down to resale as new luxury prices stay high.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 9.77% ) 
lifted its cost‑cut target to at least $3 billion. Paramount+ price hikes arrive in early 2026.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 1.38% ) 
CTO and AI chief Sachin Katti is leaving to join OpenAI.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 15.68% ) 
shares fell after its guidance disappointed investors.The AI cloud provider cited delays at a third-party data center for the weaker forecast, raising concerns about supply chain constraints in the AI buildout.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.26% ) 
October China sales were 26,006, the lowest in three years. Reuters says a new Texas facility will scale Optimus production, with a pilot line in Fremont.

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 2.12% ) 
TSMC is accelerating 2nm capacity in Arizona. Apple locked more than half of expected 2026 output.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.6% ) 
plans a $10 billion AI data hub investment in Portugal, per Bloomberg. The compute buildout race continues.

AMD $AMD ( ▼ 2.65% ) 
Lisa Su outlined multi‑year growth powered by AI accelerators. She sees data center AI chip share reaching double digits over time.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.46% ) 
Credem is rolling out Workspace with Gemini and 30,000+ hours of AI training this year.

Other Notable Company News

Sony $SONY ( ▲ 4.26% ) 
raised its full‑year profit outlook on music and image sensors.

Vodafone $VOD ( ▲ 8.29% ) 
will raise its dividend and guided to the top end of profit and cash flow.

Parker‑Hannifin $PH ( ▲ 2.06% )
is in talks to acquire Filtration Group in a deal near $9 billion.

SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▲ 2.75% )
sold its entire Nvidia stake for about $5.83 billion.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day. The dollar eased after ADP’s weekly series hinted at private‑sector job losses into Oct. 25. Rates reopen tomorrow with liquidity normalizing after the holiday.

Policy Watch

Fed

• If data resumes, expect a backlog: Sep jobs around Nov. 19, retail sales and PPI around Nov. 26, Q3 GDP around Dec. 5, and Oct jobs around Dec. 8.

• Speakers this week include Susan Collins, Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran, and John Williams.

Government Shutdown

• Airlines warn delays and cancellations may linger after reopening.

• Air traffic controllers missed a second paycheck during the stoppage, adding stress to operations.

Fiscal & Trade

• President Trump said he is considering lowering tariffs on Switzerland, lifting luxury sentiment and the franc.

International

• G‑7 foreign ministers meet in Canada, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio attending.

• COP30 continues in Belém through Nov. 21, with energy and industrial policy in focus.

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What To Watch

Cisco, Disney, Applied Materials
Earnings hit Wednesday and Thursday. Watch bookings, capex commentary, and any AI demand signals.

Treasury Supply
Ten‑year notes come Wednesday, with 30‑year bonds Thursday. Bid strength will set the tone for rates.

Treasury Market Conference
The New York Fed hosts its annual conference. Look for any hints on liquidity, buybacks, and issuance plans.

Gold Momentum
Big Banks see the gold bull run extending into 2026. Watch ETF flows and central bank activity.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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