November 10th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning.

Monday was the best day for stocks since April, and I enjoyed it for about 23 hours. Inflation came in hotter than expected this morning, and the chip stocks that led yesterday are leading the way down. Some giveback after a rally that big is normal.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Hot Inflation Put A Half Point Hike In Play

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, above the 0.3 expected. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3 percent for a third straight month. Fed Governor Waller said this morning that a number like that should put a half point December hike on the table. Traders now give it a 10 percent chance, up from zero yesterday, and no other Fed official has backed him yet.

2. Nvidia’s Scandal Could Become Every Chipmaker’s Problem

Nvidia fell 4% yesterday while other chip stocks rose 7 percent. Investors treated the Jensen Huang investigation as one company’s problem. The board review could take four to six weeks, per Dan Ives, and betting markets put the odds he’s removed this year at 13 to 14 percent. The wider risk is Washington, where lawmakers in both parties want tighter chip export rules that would hit every chipmaker selling to China.

3. Anthropic Lowered Its Price, And The Orders Are Already In

Anthropic set its IPO at $70 to $78 a share, valuing it near $1.33 trillion. That’s down from the $1.5 trillion investors expected a week ago. People on the deal say orders already cover the shares, and bankers often start low so they can raise the range later. It prices November 18 and trades November 19 as ANT.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Sanmina $SANM ( ▲ 11.11% )  
is up sharply after the electronics contract manufacturer issued an outlook above Wall Street estimates. It builds hardware for other companies, including data center equipment.

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 9.49% )  
makes custom AI and networking chips for data centers and is down about 5 percent, leading chip stocks lower. Rising bond yields after the inflation report are pulling back Monday’s winners, with Intel, Micron and AMD also down.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 10.91% )  
is lower after its quarterly loss widened more than analysts expected, even as revenue rose. The company launches small satellites.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▲ 3.51% )  
reported October revenue of $17.88 billion, up roughly 60 percent from a year ago, on demand for AI chips. Shares closed higher in Taipei, and it is one of seven companies buying into Anthropic’s private placement.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 2.65% )  
is slightly lower after the FDA required new warnings on all GLP-1 drugs, including its Ozempic and Wegovy, for a rare eye condition. The FDA says a cause has not been proven, and Citi expects little change in prescriptions.

What to Watch

CoreWeave Earnings (After The Bell)
CoreWeave rents Nvidia chips to AI companies and borrows to buy them. Its 2032 bonds yield around 15 percent, which means new unsecured debt is too expensive to build with. The number to listen for is secured financing backed by customer contracts; if that door is open, the neocloud selloff eases, and if it isn’t, the group opens lower Wednesday.

Oil Under $90 Won’t Fix Inflation
Monday’s rally leaned on Brent falling below $90 after Trump called new Iran strikes unlikely. But gas didn’t rise in October and core prices still rose 0.3 percent, so cheaper oil doesn’t solve the Fed’s problem. DNB Carnegie warns the drop may be overdone as China resumes buying crude.

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