November 10th Market Overview

Happy Monday

We rallied on shutdown progress. The Senate cleared the first procedural vote after eight Democrats broke with their party to get to 60 votes.

Tech bounced hard after last week's AI selloff and it feels like everyone was just looking for an excuse to buy back in. NVIDIA ramping Blackwell production certainly helps the narrative.

I don't think the AI story is anywhere near done. It still hasn't crossed into the physical world… AI labor, robotics, autonomous driving. That's the next wave and I think it's coming faster than people expect.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Senate Advances Deal to End Shutdown
The Senate hit 60 votes after eight Democrats broke ranks with their leadership. The deal funds government through January and forces a December vote on ACA subsidies - but doesn't extend them now. House votes this week. Over 1,600 flights canceled Monday as the shutdown enters week seven.

Nvidia Signals Stronger AI Demand
Nvidia $NVDA is pushing TSMC $TSM to ramp Blackwell wafer production from ~110,000 monthly to 160,000. Jensen Huang says demand is strengthening "month by month." Citi raised their target to $220 ahead of November 19th earnings. This directly counters last week's narrative that AI spending might be slowing.

China Suspends Rare Earth Export Ban
China lifted its export restrictions on gallium, germanium and antimony through November 2026. These are critical for chip and defense production. The move suggests Beijing is easing trade pressure even as broader tariff fights continue. Separately, China's CPI turned positive for the first time since June.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

AMD $AMD ( ▲ 4.58% ) 
recovered ahead of Tuesday's analyst day - the first in three years. Wall Street expects updates on AI partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 1.85% ) 
finally stopped bleeding, snapping an eight-day losing streak - its longest since 2011. The company is now paying lifestyle influencers like Alix Earle to promote Copilot to younger users.

Rumble $RUM ( ▲ 11.38% ) 
is acquiring Northern Data in a deal valued at up to $970 million. This gives Rumble access to roughly 22,000 Nvidia GPUs and multiple data center sites.

Big Name Updates

TSMC $TSM ( ▲ 3.06% ) 
posted record October revenue of about $11.9 billion, beating September and rising year-over-year.

MP Materials $MP ( ▲ 9.52% ) 
was upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank with a $71 price target. The firm sees it as the only fully integrated rare earth company in the West backed by the U.S.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 5.79% ) 
led the AI rebound with its biggest daily gain since late October. The company is ramping Blackwell production aggressively and Huang confirmed all major suppliers are scaling to meet demand.

Other Notable Company News

Pfizer $PFE ( ▼ 0.16% ) is buying obesity drug developer Metsera $MTSR ( ▼ 14.8% ) for $86.25 per share in a deal worth around $10 billion. They beat out Novo Nordisk in the bidding war.

Instacart $CART ( ▲ 1.58% ) 
reported strong third quarter results under new CEO Chris Rogers. Revenue grew and gross transaction value beat estimates at $9.17 billion.

CRISPR Therapeutics $CRSP ( ▼ 0.94% ) 
reported positive Phase 1 results for its gene-editing therapy targeting severe lipid disorders, showing major reductions in triglycerides and LDL.

CarMax $KMX ( ▲ 2.75% ) 
got downgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley after CEO Bill Nash unexpectedly stepped down. Shares have tumbled this year.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 0.66% ) 
got a credit downgrade to underweight at Barclays citing hyperscaler financing concerns and debt overhang.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasuries sold off on shutdown progress, pushing yields higher. Bond markets close Tuesday for Veterans Day while stocks stay open. I'm watching to see if this risk-on mood holds through the week.

Policy Watch

Government Shutdown

Eight Democrats broke ranks to hit the 60-vote threshold: Fetterman, Durbin, Kaine, King, Cortez Masto, Shaheen, Hassan, and Rosen. The deal includes:

• Funding through January

• Federal worker protections from mass layoffs

• December vote on ACA subsidies (no extension yet)

• House vote this week

Consumer sentiment hit a three-year low Friday.

Trade & Tariffs

• Trump claims the U.S. is collecting "trillions" in tariffs and will pay a "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per person

• China suspended export restrictions on gallium, germanium and antimony through November 2026

• Supreme Court is hearing arguments on Trump's reciprocal tariffs authority

• JPMorgan says striking them down would boost international stocks and emerging markets

Air Travel Crisis

Trump threatened to dock air traffic controller pay while promising $10,000 bonuses for those who stayed. Transportation Secretary Duffy warned Thanksgiving travel will worsen if the shutdown continues. The FAA ordered airlines to cut domestic flights at 40 major airports through Friday.

Fed

Governor Miran pushed for a half-point December cut but left room to adjust. Daly said the Fed shouldn't be so obsessed with avoiding the 1970s that it kills the possibility of a 1990s-style soft landing.

Today’s Sponsor

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What To Watch

AMD Analyst Day Tuesday

The chipmaker's first analyst day in three years. Wall Street wants updates on AI partnerships and data center momentum. Stock doubled this year but pulled back on margin guidance.

Delayed Economic Data

September jobs report should drop within days of reopening - it was ready when the shutdown hit. October data is messier since BLS staff were out all month. CPI and PPI reports face uncertainty before the Fed's December 10th meeting.

Berkshire Succession

Buffett will keep significant Class A shares until shareholders trust Greg Abel, who takes over January 1st. Buffett stays as chairman and expects Abel to run the company for decades.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John