Nov. 10th Market Overview: Nvidia's Scandal Has A Dollar Figure

Happy Tuesday

Stocks gave back part of yesterdays rally today, and the bond market did most of the pushing. Inflation came in a little hot this morning and two Fed officials talked about raising rates faster, which sent the 10-year Treasury yield right back above 5 percent. When the government will pay you 5% to sit still, stocks have to work harder to look worth owning.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Back Above 5 Percent

The 10-year yield climbed back above 5 percent after this morning's inflation report. The 2-year, which follows where traders think the Fed is headed, rose about 0.2 points to 4.77 percent. The Wall Street Journal says that's close to its biggest one-day climb in 19 months. Higher yields weighed on nearly everything else, with the Nasdaq leading stocks lower, gold and bitcoin falling, and the dollar rising.

2. Nvidia's Scandal Now Has A Dollar Figure

The Information reported that Jensen Huang's relationship with Alice Huang, a suspected Chinese spy, helped Chinese companies get at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips since 2023. Nvidia fell for a second day and has lost more than $365 billion in market value since the affair came out. The stock now trades at 11.66 times the earnings expected over the next 12 months, its cheapest since October 2011, per Dow Jones Market Data. Microsoft passed it in market value around midday, roughly $4.04 trillion to $4.03 trillion.

3. More Households Are Falling Behind On Payments

About 5 percent of U.S. household debt was behind on payments in the third quarter, the New York Fed said today, the highest share in nearly a decade. Late auto loans and mortgages drove most of the increase, while credit cards improved a little. Grocery prices rose another 0.4 percent in October, and food makers plan more increases. Campbell's is raising prices on about 60 percent of what it sells, and Kraft Heinz will raise prices across its lineup in 2027.

Market Overview

Index Performance (CPI today)

Stock Spotlight

Hims & Hers Health $HIMS ( ▼ 17.76% )  
fell after its fourth-quarter revenue forecast came in below expectations. Third-quarter revenue rose 49 percent to $890.4 million, about what Wall Street expected. Gross margin fell to 57 percent from 74 percent, and subscriber growth missed.

Harrow $HROW ( ▲ 12.12% )  
, which sells eye care drugs, rose after its third-quarter revenue beat estimates. It also kept a full-year revenue forecast that was already above Wall Street’s.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 2.32% )  
and Lam Research $LRCX came off Bank of America’s US 1 list, the bank’s short list of favorite stocks, along with Nvidia. Both had climbed with the rest of the chip group on Monday.

Big Name Updates

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 3.81% )  
is one of Goldman Sachs’ three top chip picks, with Nvidia and AMD, after the bank called chip stocks oversold. Even in a no-growth 2028, Goldman figures Nvidia and Broadcom trade at about 12 and 13 times earnings.

IBM $IBM ( ▼ 0.16% )  
and Microsoft $MSFT launched Imagine Enterprise, a platform that helps businesses build and manage AI agents. It pairs more than 6,000 prebuilt agents and tools from IBM Consulting with Microsoft’s cloud, data and security products.

SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▼ 6.0% )  
reported a $7 billion loss after Tokyo’s close. Its CFO said it’s “only natural” to talk about waiting to see how things play out. SoftBank is one of OpenAI’s biggest investors, so that reads as a slowdown in its AI spending.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 2.53% )  
plans to spin off T-Head, its in-house chip design unit, which has filed for a Hong Kong IPO. T-Head designs data center processors in China and will stay an Alibaba subsidiary, and the size of the offering hasn’t been set.

Take-Two Interactive $TTWO ( ▲ 8.69% )  
rose after giving an outlook that analysts see as conservative ahead of the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

Other Notable Company News

Aaon $AAON ( ▲ 19.21% )  
, which makes air conditioning equipment, rose after its third-quarter results.

Honda $HMC ( ▼ 2.73% )  
raised its annual earnings forecast after Tokyo’s close.

Groupon $GRPN ( ▼ 22.68% )  
fell after lowering its full-year 2026 sales forecast.

Lucid $LCID ( ▲ 3.75% )  
fell after its quarterly revenue missed estimates.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Today was ugly for bonds, but we’ve seen worse this fall, since the 10-year was above 5.3 percent in early October. Bonds take tomorrow off for Veterans Day while stocks trade as usual.

Policy Watch

Fed

Traders treat a December hike as close to settled and expect at least two hikes by the middle of next year, so the argument inside the Fed is now about speed.

• The simplest way to go faster is to hike in December and again in January, the Journal’s Nick Timiraos points out. That would be a smaller break from habit than one half-point move, which the Fed hasn’t made since 2022.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday the AI data center buildout is starting to look like “old-fashioned demand overheating.” So the AI boom is now on the Fed’s list of reasons to keep hiking.

Trade

The Commerce Department hasn’t added a single company to its export blacklist in 13 months, after adding 170 earlier in 2025, and I doubt that quiet survives the Nvidia story. The Information reported today that Alice Huang helped secure about 240,000 Nvidia chips from distributors in China after the U.S. banned sales of its most powerful chips there.

• The first date to watch is Jan. 10. Commerce delayed a rule Monday that would widen the blacklist to companies majority-owned by listed firms, but only until then, a week after the new Congress is sworn in.

• President Trump said Huang told him he had no idea she was a spy, and that the FBI is looking into it. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries wants a full briefing for Congress.

International

President Trump is holding off on new strikes against Iran for now, after Qatar’s prime minister and other leaders in the region asked him to. The naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz stays, and Qatar says both sides are responding well to its mediation. An Iranian source, though, denied any deal on uranium enrichment and said detailed nuclear talks haven’t happened.

What to Watch

*AI is becoming physical

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Wholesale Prices And Fed Speakers

October's producer price index comes out Friday, and another warm reading would add to the case for faster hikes. New York Fed President John Williams speaks Thursday, along with Cleveland's Beth Hammack and Governor Michael Barr, and Vice Chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson follow on Friday. If Williams sounds open to moving faster, I'd take back-to-back hikes in December and January a lot more seriously.

Anthropic's New Numbers

Anthropic's revenue was running at an $81 billion annual pace on Oct. 31, up about $10 billion in a month, per its IPO filing. Either company can now cancel its roughly $34.9 billion computing deal with Lambda, after Lambda missed a deadline to lease a facility. Anthropic only pays as capacity is delivered, and I'd watch whether bankers raise the $70 to $78 price range before the IPO prices Nov. 18.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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