May 6th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Risk-on open shaping up off Iran deal headlines hit overnight, oil finally cracked under 100, and AMD ripped 20 in premarket off great earnings.

Trump posted that Iran agreeing is "a big assumption" and futures gave half of it back in twenty minutes. Still nice and green across the board though. I'll take it.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump Hedging On The Iran Deal He Just Teased 

The US handed Iran a one-page memo to end the war and Brent broke 100. Then Trump posted it's "a big assumption" Iran agrees and threatened harder bombing if they don't. Futures gave back half the overnight gain in twenty minutes. For now, the market is pricing a yes the President is openly hedging on.

2. The Chip Rally Just Broadened, And Got More Fragile 

AMD beat both lines and guided Q2 above consensus on data center growth. Super Micro is up over 15% on its own guide and Samsung crossed a trillion overnight on AI memory. The money rotating past Nvidia into the rest of the group is bullish. From here, the bull thesis isn't about demand. It's about whether anyone can hold their margins.

3. Nvidia Just Wrote Corning A $500M Check 

Nvidia is investing $500 million in Corning and replacing copper with Corning's optical fiber inside its AI rack systems. The deal includes three new US plants and a tenfold capacity expansion. Corning is up 15-20% in premarket and has tripled in a year. Most of the sell side still models it like a display glass cyclical.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Disney $DIS ( ▲ 1.38% )  
beat Q2 and new CEO Josh D'Amaro used his first call to pivot the story toward tech and consumer reach. Stock indicated up in premarket. Sell-side has to refresh price targets that were modeled on the old streaming-only thesis.

Uber $UBER ( ▲ 0.28% )  
guided Q2 bookings above consensus at $56.25–$57.75B, with delivery up 34. Mobility revenue grew only 5 as gas at $4.54 squeezes drivers. Lyft reports tomorrow morning and now has to explain why its mobility number should look any different.

Super Micro $SMCI ( ▼ 2.18% )  
is bid up on stronger guidance. Dell and HPE earnings now have a higher bar to clear, and any AI server name that guides cautiously this season gets punished against this print.

Corning $GLW ( ▼ 4.41% )  
is up after Nvidia announced a $500 million investment plus three new optical fiber plants. Coherent and Lumentum, both already Nvidia-backed, get a direct lift.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 6.82% )  
most-traded name in premarket. The Apple manufacturing rumor is the real catalyst, not the AMD halo. TSMC longs need to defend the position because Intel taking even part of Apple's silicon is a structural share shift, not a one-quarter trade.

Arista Networks $ANET ( ▲ 4.48% )  
dropped after the bell on a small gross margin miss, 62.4 vs 62.7 expected. This is the first crack in the AI infrastructure trade, against AMD and SMCI ripping in the same session.

What to Watch

ADP Hurt The Easy Rate Cut Story 
Private payrolls came in at 109k. Consensus was 84k. The Fed isn't cutting into a labor market that won't slow down, and Friday's nonfarm needs to print well below 62k to keep the cut bid alive.

Iran Has 48 Hour. 
Tehran responds through Pakistan in the next two days. Then Trump posted that if they say no, the bombing starts harder than before. Futures gave back half the overnight gain on that one post.

CoreWeave Reports Tomorrow Morning 
This is the AI infrastructure read of the week. Soft guide and the chip rotation reverses fast. Strong guide and the optical trade through Corning, Coherent, and Lumentum has another leg.

- John

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