May 21st Pre-Market

Good Morning

Iran's Supreme Leader said enriched uranium stays put and oil ripped right back above $107. Nvidia beat on every line and the stock is flat, which tells you more about expectations than the numbers. SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus yesterday, OpenAI could file as soon as tomorrow, and Anthropic just told investors they expect their first quarterly profit ever.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Iran Just Rejected The Core U.S. Demand

Reuters reported Iran's Supreme Leader directed that enriched uranium must stay within the country. That kills the core American condition for ending the war. Brent is back above $107, the 10-year yield is at 4.6, and futures reversed Wednesday's rally. Trump said he'd wait "a few days" but that timeline just got harder to believe.

2. Nvidia Posted $81.6 Billion In Revenue And Nobody Cared 

Beat on revenue, beat on guidance, announced an $80 billion buyback, raised the dividend. Stock is flat. Huang told CNBC that Nvidia has "largely conceded" China to Huawei and told investors to expect nothing on export approvals. Revenue still grew at that pace after losing roughly a fifth of its data center market, which tells you the rest of the world is spending even harder than the headline suggests.

3. Washington Just Put Real Money Behind Quantum 

The U.S. government plans to award $2 billion to nine quantum computing firms with equity stakes attached, per the Wall Street Journal. IBM gets $1 billion to build a quantum foundry in Albany called Anderon. Government taking equity stakes means Washington is treating quantum as national security, not a science project.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Walmart $WMT ( ▼ 2.5% )  

Full year guidance came in light at $2.75 to $2.85 EPS versus the Street at $2.91. Q1 revenue beat but nobody trades the rearview. Consumer focused funds watching this name as a bellwether have to decide if soft guidance is a one quarter blip or the start of a trend.

Intuit $INTU ( ▼ 3.95% )  

The maker of TurboTax and QuickBooks plans to lay off 17% of its workforce as it remakes itself into an AI-first platform. Institutional holders who bought the "steady compounder" thesis are the ones forced to rewrite this position today.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 5.48% )  

Down premarket because SpaceX filed its S-1 Wednesday night with a roadshow kicking off June 8. When a trillion dollar competitor goes public, every smaller space name gets repriced against it.

E.l.f. Beauty $ELF ( ▼ 4.27% )  

Beat on top and bottom lines then said it's rolling back tariff price hikes because consumers are stretched from gas prices. That's a margin decision most companies aren't willing to make right now.

AMD $AMD ( ▲ 8.1% )  

Announced $10 billion going into Taiwan's chip ecosystem to build out AI packaging and its Helios server system shipping second half of this year. The stock is dipping because $10 billion is a big check with no near term payoff.

GlobalFoundries $GFS ( ▲ 6.16% )  

Getting $375 million from the government's $2 billion quantum grant package. GFS makes the chips quantum systems actually run on. In a sector full of pre revenue names ripping on headlines, this is the one quantum play where fundamental investors can build a real position.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

OpenAI IPO Filing Could Drop Tomorrow 

SpaceX filed yesterday, Anthropic just told investors it expects its first quarterly profit in Q2 with revenue more than doubling, and OpenAI could file as soon as Friday. Three potential trillion-dollar listings in the pipeline at once. That much capital demand hitting the market in a tight window is something equity investors need to start pricing in.

After-Bell Earnings: Ross Stores, Workday, Zoom 

Ross Stores is the consumer read to watch after Walmart's soft guidance. Workday will tell you whether enterprise AI spending is holding up. Zoom is the sleeper if management says anything real about AI traction.

- John

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