May 15th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Trump and Xi wrapped up Beijing with handshakes, a state dinner, and not a whole lot else. Markets wanted real deals and got a Boeing order half the size everyone was hoping for, plus a chip approval that China already said it doesn't want.

It's Powell's last day on the job. Kevin Warsh takes over Monday with inflation running hot and oil above $108.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Bond Market Just Repriced The Cycle 

The 10-year hit 4.54% and the 30-year topped 5.1%, the highest since 2023. A week ago money markets were pricing two Fed cuts this year; now they're pricing a 60% chance of a hike. The 2-year moved more than the 10-year, so this is pure inflation repricing, not a growth scare. High-multiple tech gets repriced next, which is exactly what the Nasdaq tape is telling you premarket.

2. The Real China Deal Is Months Away 

Trump dangled "up to 750 jets if they do a good job" - that's a carrot for Xi's White House visit on September 24, not anything Boeing books today. He also confirmed Beijing wants Huawei chips over Nvidia's H200s, so the China revenue story the Street built into Nvidia this week just got walked back. And the rare earths truce expires this fall with no extension locked in, which matters because China controls the supply chain for everything from EVs to defense.

3. Powell Is Out, Warsh Is In, And The Data Is Ugly

Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed today with inflation running hot in every direction. April CPI was the hottest since 2023, PPI the hottest since 2022, and Empire State manufacturing just showed prices paid at their highest level in four years. Warsh has historically leaned hawkish, and the data on his desk gives him plenty of cover to stay there. The first thing he says publicly sets the tone for rates the rest of the year.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

5 Zacks experts scan thousands of publicly traded companies. » Then select one apiece.

 See them now.

Our team of 5 Zacks experts scan thousands of publicly traded companies and selects a single stock apiece, with the best realistic shot at gaining +100% or more in the next 12 months.

Every company also carries a strong Zacks Rank, meaning earnings estimates are already trending upward. These aren't companies you simply hold and hope.

These are positioned to start moving.

Download “5 Stocks Set to Double now”.

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Applied Materials $AMAT ( ▲ 0.91% )  

Beat and raised, stock still red premarket. The move is the SOXX breaking a six week win streak, not the print. Anyone overweight semis at decade high exposure is getting the tap on the shoulder to trim today.

Figma $FIG ( ▲ 6.86% )  

Raised full year revenue guide to $1.42-1.43 billion from $1.36-1.37 billion. AI is showing up as actual SaaS revenue, not just chip capex. PMs short design and creative software names are covering before the read across hits Adobe and Canva adjacent comps.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 1.04% )  

Moving after Ackman disclosed a Pershing Square stake built in Q1 at 21x forward earnings. Stock is down 15 percent YTD against a Nasdaq up 15%, so the relative trade is wide open.

Cerebras Systems $CBRS ( ▲ 68.15% )  

Opens day two after closing up 68 percent on debut. Hold the premium and the AI hardware IPO calendar stays open, SpaceX included. Break it and every late cycle AI hardware long is forced to cut size before the weekend.

Gemini Space Station $GEMI ( ▲ 6.91% )  

Up over 20 percent premarket on a $100 million Winklevoss Capital injection plus a revenue beat. Insider capital signals the float is tight and shorts are getting squeezed at the open.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

Warsh's First Signal (Today) 

Powell is out, Warsh is in, and the data on his desk is hot. His first public utterance is the trade. If he reads anything like Powell, the bond rout extends. If he sounds dovish despite the prints, the dollar gives back this week's gain.

China Oil Sanctions Decision (Next Few Days) 

Trump said he'd decide on lifting sanctions against Chinese teapot refiners buying Iranian crude. Lift them and oil comes in, yields get oxygen. Hold them and we stay in this regime. This is the cleanest swing factor for rates next week.

Putin Lands In Beijing (This Weekend) 

The Kremlin announced Putin visits Xi days after Trump's departure. Any joint Russia China energy statement moves crude before Monday's open. Don't be flat going into the weekend without hedging crude exposure.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Your Retirement Has a Vulnerability Most Advisors Never Mention.

Dollar-denominated accounts — 401(k)s, IRAs, savings — are fully exposed to inflation, currency debasement, and government policy. Most financial advisors won't tell you that, because most of them don't profit when you know. Here's what's actually available to you:

• A Gold IRA uses the same tax protections you already have

• Physical gold sits outside inflation and banking risk

• Accounts can go live in as little as 24 hours

• Zero setup fees, zero-fee buyback guaranteed

• Free 2026 kit explains everything — no obligation

Send me the free kit