May 13th Pre-Market

Good Morning

PPI came in at 1.4 this morning, Street was looking for 0.5. Wholesale inflation is now running 6% a year, hottest since 2022. Trump's in Beijing with basically every CEO who has a logo and chips are somehow still green like nothing happened.

The bond market is the only one telling the truth right now. Everyone else is at the Beijing afterparty.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump In Beijing With Half The Nasdaq

Trump landed in Beijing for a two-day summit with Xi on trade, chips, and Iran, with CEOs from Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, BlackRock, Goldman, Blackstone, Citi, Boeing, Micron, Qualcomm, GE Aerospace, Coherent, Illumina, Cargill, Mastercard, Visa, and Meta in tow.

Huang was a late add after Trump called him personally and he boarded at an Anchorage refuel. Bessent already met Vice Premier He Lifeng for three hours in Korea, so pre-talks are real.

2. PPI Confirms The Bond Market 

Wholesale prices rose 1.4 in April versus 0.5 expected, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022. Annual PPI hit 6, the highest since December 2022, with wholesale energy alone running 7.8 on the month. That kills any case for a 2026 rate cut. Fed futures are now pricing a hike by April and the 30-year is above 5. Warsh gets the chair vote today and walks into a bond market that has already moved against him.

3. Oil Is Cracking While Inflation Stays Stuck 

WTI is around 101 and Brent slipping below 107 as the IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast from 80,000 barrels a day to 420,000. Demand destruction is actually happening now. Problem is the inflation pipeline is already full, so this helps oil names roll over before it helps CPI.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 2.16% )  
is cutting or relocating 1,000 corporate workers per the Journal. Biggest US employer trimming white-collar on a hot inflation day. That's the macro tell, not the stock.

Wix $WIX ( ▼ 4.33% )  
printed 68 cents versus 1.24 expected. Not a miss, a guide reset. Read-across to SMB software like $SHOP and $GDDY.

Nebius $NBIS ( ▼ 3.76% )  
bid hard after revenue came in roughly 8x year over year. Cleanest AI cloud pure-play outside the hyperscalers. Sympathy bid likely in $CRWV and $CRDO.

Coherent $COHR ( ▼ 1.5% )  
led the S&P yesterday on the photonics rip. CEO Jim Anderson is on the plane to Beijing. Chip access loosens, optical transceivers go with it.

Resideo $REZI ( ▼ 2.11% )  
beat the print but guided current quarter revenue 90 million below the Street. Smart home demand is rolling over. Read-across to $ADT and the home builders.

Fervo Energy $FRVO

ipo’s today on the Nasdaq. Google-backed geothermal, first real alt-energy IPO in a year. First-day tape tells you if there's appetite for new supply.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

30-Year Auction (1:00 PM ET) 

A tail of 3 basis points or more at a 5-handle and equities give back the open into the close. This auction tells you if foreign buyers are still around.

Trump-Xi Readouts (Tonight Into Thursday) 

The trade isn't rare earths or chips. Any signal on the Iran ceasefire is the real tail risk. Crude lower would be the surprise.

- John

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