May 12th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Inflation came in higher than the Street wanted this morning and futures are sliding with oil back above 107. The Iran ceasefire isn’t looking good together and Trump flies to Beijing tomorrow.

Strip out food and energy and the number still ran hot, which is the part that actually moves the Fed. I think that takes 2026 rate cuts off the table.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Core Inflation Number Is The Real Problem 

The 3.8 headline inflation print was already baked in. The issue is core inflation, which strips out food and gas to show the underlying trend, and it came in at 0.4 for the month versus 0.3 expected. The Fed's preferred gauge that tracks services prices also reaccelerated sharply. That tells you high oil is bleeding into rent and everyday services, which is exactly what kills the 2026 rate cut story. Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair on Friday and inherits this mess.

2. Iran Ceasefire On Life Support, Oil Above 107

Trump called Iran's counterproposal "garbage" and the ceasefire is breaking. Brent is back above 107 with Polymarket Hormuz odds collapsing from near 90 to around 34 in a month. Trump heads to Beijing tomorrow without Jensen on the plane. That absence tells you advanced chip sales to China aren't coming back.

3. Samsung Strike Hits The Memory Trade 

Samsung is in emergency talks over an 18-day chip factory strike. The hit could reach 20 billion dollars and disrupt HBM production. Korea ETFs got hammered overnight and Micron rolled over after running hard last week. Memory has been the cleanest piece of the AI trade, now it's getting tested.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

By the time a double is confirmed, much of the gain is already gone.

Our team of 5 Zacks experts scans thousands of publicly traded companies and selects a single stock apiece, with the best realistic shot at gaining +100% or more in the next 12 months.

Every company also carries a strong Zacks Rank, meaning earnings estimates are already trending upward. These aren't companies you simply hold and hope. These are positioned to start moving.


Download “5 Stocks Set to Double now”

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▼ 13.66% )  
got crushed in premarket on a surprise Q1 loss and weak full-year guide. The Novo Nordisk deal pulled them off compounded GLP-1s, which was the margin engine.

Wendy's $WEN ( ▲ 16.2% )  
is bid up early on an FT report that Nelson Peltz's Trian is raising capital for a take-private bid. Peltz has rattled this cage for years, this time the financing looks real.

GameStop $GME ( ▼ 2.46% )  
is slipping after eBay's board called Cohen's 56 billion dollar bid "neither credible nor attractive." The rejection puts focus back on what GameStop actually does with its cash pile.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 1.03% )  
had its OpenAI revenue share capped at 38 billion in the renegotiated deal. Under the old structure that share could have hit 135 billion if OpenAI met long-term targets. That's a real cut to the bull case here.

Under Armour $UA ( ▼ 17.94% )  
got hammered in premarket after a quarterly revenue miss that came in well below the Street. Sportswear demand is softening and this one had been priced as a recovery story.

Venture Global $VG ( ▲ 14.97% )  
is bid up after beating revenue and raising full-year EBITDA guide. With Brent at 107 and Hormuz shut, US LNG exporters are the cleanest energy trade on the tape.

What to Watch

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

Goolsbee Speech (Today) 
The Chicago Fed president speaks in Rockford. He's been one of the more dovish voices on the board, so any shift in tone post-CPI is the read.

Trump-Xi Meeting (Wednesday-Friday) 
Two-day visit and the tape will react to leaks in real time. Boeing orders and soybean purchases give the cover. The headline that actually moves things is anything on tariffs or chip controls.

Cerebras IPO ($CBRS Trades Thursday)
First major AI infrastructure IPO in months. With retail call buying near 2021 highs, the first day tape tells you whether there's still appetite for new AI supply.

Warsh Confirmation This Week
Powell's last day is Friday. Warsh is seen as more hawkish and the bond market is already pricing it. Watch financials and rate-sensitive names for the first read.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

“AI is Going to Fundamentally Change…Everything”

That’s what NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang just said about the AI boom, even calling it “the largest infrastructure buildout in human history.”

NVIDIA’s chips made this real-time revolution possible, but now it’s collaborating with Miso to unlock amazing new advances in robotics.

Already a first-mover in the $1T fast-food industry, Miso’s AI-powered Flippy Fry Station robots have worked 200K+ hours for leading brands like White Castle, just surpassing 5M+ baskets of fried food.

And this latest NVIDIA collaboration unlocks up to 35% faster performance for Miso’s robots, which can cook perfect fried foods 24/7. In an industry experiencing 144% labor turnover, where speed is key, those gains can be game-changing.

There are 100K+ US fast-food locations in desperate need, a $4B/year revenue opportunity for Miso. And you can invest alongside Ecolab and become a Miso shareholder today. Even better, you can unlock free additional bonus stock for a limited time. Become a Miso investor today.

Invest in Miso Today

^{This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.}