May 11th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Futures are slightly down, oil is back at $104 after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer over the weekend. CPI tomorrow, new Fed Chair vote today, and Trump heads to China on Wednesday.

Lot of moving parts this week and the S&P is sitting at all-time highs going into all of it.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Hormuz Stays Shut, CPI Catches It 

Trump killed Iran's peace offer Sunday and Brent is back near $104. Gas at $4.52 nationally, all of it showing up in tomorrow's CPI. JPM says the real damage doesn't hit until June. Morgan Stanley says if Hormuz stays closed, Brent hits $150 by summer.

2. New Fed Chair, Same Hot Inflation 

Senate votes Kevin Warsh in as Fed Chair today. Powell's last day is Friday. Warsh inherits tomorrow's CPI print and gas prices the Fed can't do anything about. Bond yields are already climbing this morning, which tells you traders aren't waiting for the data.

3. Trump Lands In Beijing Wednesday 

First time a US president has visited China in a decade. Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Boeing's Ortberg and Citi's Fraser are all on the plane. The real trade is whatever leaks on chip export controls mid-visit. Watch Nvidia and AMD into Friday.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 6.82% )  

Up another handful in premarket on top of Friday's 14 percent rip. The Apple chip supply deal puts every foundry, especially TSMC, on the clock to defend its book against a real US based comeback.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▲ 0.68% )  

Up on hantavirus headlines after 17 Americans were flown to a Nebraska quarantine unit. Evercore came out and said it directly no real revenue here. This is a pure retail sentiment trade, and retail decides where it closes.

Constellation Energy $CEG ( ▼ 2.03% )  

Reported Q1 revenue of $11.12 billion versus the $8.46 billion estimate, with EPS at $2.74 versus $2.54. The "nuclear powers AI" thesis finally has hard numbers behind it.

Nintendo $NTDOY ( ▲ 2.44% )  

Closed down hard in Tokyo after Switch 2 price hikes and a weak unit guide. Memory chip inflation from the AI buildout is the cause. This is the first major consumer hardware name to take a P&L hit from AI capex spillover, which means PC, smartphone and console OEMs all have to answer the same question on their next call.

Mosaic $MOS ( ▲ 2.75% )  

Posted Q1 adjusted EPS of 5 cents versus 24 cents expected. Fertilizer isn't catching the food inflation bid bulls were positioning for.

Monday.com $MNDY ( ▼ 6.4% )  
up in premarket after crushing Q1. Their new AI platform is actually driving revenue, not just a talking point on an earnings call. $351 million in revenue, up 24% from last year. Every SaaS CEO is going to get asked "where's your AI revenue?" next quarter.

What to Watch

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CPI Report (Tomorrow 8:30 AM ET) 

This is the number that sets the tone for the rest of the week. Headline expected to accelerate from 3.3 to 3.8 on the back of higher energy costs. Core is expected to tick up too. A hot print and the rate cut conversation is dead for the summer.

Trump-Xi Summit (Wednesday Through Friday) 

The Big 3 covered the headline. The trade here is what leaks out mid-visit on chip export controls and Boeing orders. Nvidia and AMD are the two names most exposed to any shift in AI chip policy.

Cerebras IPO (Prices This Week, Trades Thursday as $CBRS) 

Biggest IPO of 2026 so far targeting up to $3.5 billion. This is the market's real-time vote on whether the AI infrastructure trade still has room.

- John

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