March 9th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Oil is above $100, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Kuwait told buyers over the weekend it legally cannot deliver oil. Futures are down over -1% across the board.

G7 finance ministers meet this morning to talk reserve releases and that call probably sets the tone for the entire week.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. The Oil Supply Crisis Is Accelerating 

Kuwait declared force majeure on exports. That's not a voluntary cut. That's a country telling buyers it legally cannot deliver oil. Saudi Arabia is now cutting output too as storage fills up. Iraq's production has collapsed. Melius is comparing this to 1973. The G7 meets this morning to discuss a coordinated reserve release. Reserves buy time. They don't reopen the Strait. If this call disappoints, oil retests $119. If it delivers, we get breathing room, not a fix.

2. The Fed Has No Good Options 

Friday's jobs report showed a weakening labor market. Now energy costs are repricing everything. That's the stagflation trap. Cut rates and you feed inflation. Hold rates and you choke a slowing economy. Wednesday's CPI is the next decision point. A hot print removes the last bit of flexibility the Fed had left. The 10-year is already at 4.19. Polymarket has the March hold at 99 cents.

3. There Is No Visible Offramp 

Tehran named Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. He's a hardliner. Trump says the war is "already won" and $100 oil is a "small price to pay." The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Energy Secretary Wright says weeks, not months. Melius expects more force majeure declarations in the coming days. Bloomberg reports 40 million barrels are sitting on tankers off China's coast with nowhere to go. The longer this lasts, the less this looks like a shock and the more it looks like a regime change in energy prices.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 46.79% )  
Novo Nordisk $NVO will sell Wegovy directly on the platform, per Bloomberg. A month ago these two were in a legal fight over copycat GLP-1s. Now they're partners.

Live Nation $LYV ( ▲ 5.25% )  
Close to settling the DOJ antitrust suit and keeping Ticketmaster, per Bloomberg. The one thing bears had is going away.

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI ( ▲ 14.65% )  
Landed its first volume order for 1.6T data center transceivers from a major hyperscale customer. Over $200M in revenue, shipments start Q3.

MicroStrategy $MSTR ( ▲ 2.16% )  
Bought another 17,994 Bitcoin last week at roughly $71K each. Now holds 738,731 BTC. They're buying into a war and an oil shock.

Devon Energy $DVN ( ▲ 0.09% )  
Domestic producer with zero Strait of Hormuz exposure. Cleanest energy long without the geopolitical tail risk.

Vertiv $VRT ( ▲ 9.34% )  
Joins the S&P 500 on March 23. Index funds have to buy. Forced demand into a weak tape.

What to Watch

G7 Reserve Release Call (Starts this Morning) 

Finance ministers are deciding whether to tap strategic oil reserves together. Oil pulled back from $119 on the headline alone. The outcome of this call likely decides the direction of the open.

February CPI (Wednesday) 

This print was already the week's main event. Now it lands on top of $100 oil. A hot number kills whatever is left of the rate cut case for 2026.

Nvidia GTC (March 16-19) 

Jensen Huang's keynote is next week. Options activity is picking up today. Any previews or leaks could move semis into the close

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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